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Coping with Shocks and Shifts: The Multilateral Trading System in Historical Perspective

 

Douglas A. Irwin and Kevin H. O’Rourke

Dartmouth College and University of Oxford

 

 

Abstract

 

This paper provides a historical look at how the multilateral trading system has coped with the challenge of shocks and shif= ts.  By shocks we mean sudden jolts to the world economy in the form of fi= nancial crises and deep recessions, or wars and political conflicts.  By shift= s we mean slow-moving, long-term changes in comparative advantage or shifts in t= he geopolitical equilibrium that force economies to undergo disruptive and potentially painful adjustments.  We conclude that most shocks (financ= ial crises and regional wars) have had relatively little effect on the trade policy, but that shifts pose a greater challenge to the system of open, multilateral trade.

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