Publications'A review of survey analysis packages', SSRC, 1970 'A conservative confidence interval for the likelihood ratio' (with A Mitchell), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, 861-866, 1971 'Analysing the census data' (with I Crewe), Appendix 3 in The British General Election of 1970 by D Butler and M Pinto-Duschinsky, Macmillan, 1971 'Crime: accident or disease. An exploration using probability models for the generation of macro-criminological data' (with R Carr-Hill), Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 8, 133-155, 1971 'Scientific and cultural development', chapter 18 in Computers in the Year 2000, edited by B Meek, National Computer Centre, 1972 'Features of electoral behaviour at by-elections' (with S Taylor), chapter 12 in By-elections in British Politics, edited by C Cook and J Ramsden, Macmillan, 1973 'Predicting offender-patients' reconvictions' (with S McCabe and N Walker), British Journal of Psychiatry, 125, 60-64, 1974 'An algorithm for determining Slater's I and all nearest adjoining orders' (with A F Smith), British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 27, 49-52, 1974 'An evaluation of programs for fitting log-linear models', SSRC, 1975 'Another game with nature: an ecological regression model of the British two-party vote ratio' (with I Crewe), British Journal of Political Science, 6, 43-81, 1976 'Election night forecasting (with discussion)' (with P Brown), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 138, 463-498, 1975 'The use of logistic models in political science: British elections 1964-70' (with J Francis), Political Methodology, 4, 233-270, 1977 The analysis of survey data Volume 1: Exploring data structures (chapter 2 - The preparation and processing of survey data) and Volume 2: Model fitting (chapter 7- the log-linear model for contingency tables), (joint editor with C O'Muircheartaigh), Wiley, 1977 'Trends in class mobility' (with J Goldthorpe), Sociology, 12, 441-468, 1978 Social Mobility and Class Structure in Modern Britain in collaboration with J Goldthorpe, Oxford University Press, 1980 (First Edition) and 1987 (Revised Second Edition) 'An information retrieval system for the Bloomsbury industry' (with P Levy), Times Literary Supplement, 1979 'Forecasting the British election to the European Parliament' (with P Brown), British Journal of Political Science, 11, 235-245, 1981 'Relational databases and social networks: a PSTAT implementation, Connections, 5, 48-54, 1982 'Election forecasting in the UK', Encyclopedia for Statistical Sciences, Vol 2, Wiley, 1982 'The Alliance's first nationwide test: lessons of the 1982 English local elections' (with J Curtice and R Waller), Electoral Studies, 2, 3-22, 1983 ‘The transition from elementary to secondary education in 1964 and 1977, a log-linear analysis', H. Stronkhorst and J. Pannwkeok, (contribution to discussion), in Recent Developments in the Analysis of Large-scale Data Sets, Eurostat News Special Number, 1984 'Forecasting the 1983 British general election' (with P Brown), Statistician, 33, 217-228, 1984 'Aggregate data, ecological regression and voting transitions' (with P Brown), Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 452-460, 1986 'Youth unemployment 1974-81: the changing importance of age and qualifications' (with J Payne), Quarterly Journal of Social Affairs, 1, 177-192, 1985 The GLIM 3.77 Manual (editor), NAG, 1985 'GLIM 3.77 - the New Release' (with J Webb), in Generalised Linear Models, eds R Gilchrist, B Francis and J Whittaker, 37-46, Springer-Verlag, 1985 'Trends in intergenerational class mobility in England and Wales, 1972-83' (with J Goldthorpe), Sociology, 20, 1-24, 1986 'On the class mobilty of women: results from different approaches to the analysis of British data' (with J Goldthorpe), Sociology, 20, 531-555, 1986 'Byelection exit polls' (with P Brown and V Hannah), Electoral Studies, 5, 277-287, 1986 The use of computer software in the social sciences, ESRC, 1986 'The effect of the GHS sample design on logistic models' (with C O'Muircheartaigh and J Payne), GHS Newsletter, 3, 27-31, 1987 'Adding new statistical techniques to standard software systems: a review' (with P Brown and N Cleave), Compstat 1988 Proceedings, 207-210, Physica-Verlag, 1988 ‘Service Class Entry in Worklife Perspective', SCELI Working Paper No 10, ESRC (with C Mills), 1989 ‘Kernel software for social science research', chapter 2 in Welford, R (Ed), Information Technology for Social Scientists, European Research Press, 1990 ‘Election Forecasting in the UK 1970-90', The New Zealand Statistician, 25, 36-84, 1990 ‘Local Elections as National Referendums in Great Britain' (with J Curtice), Electoral Studies, 10, 3-17, 1991 ‘Modelling Trends in the Class/Party Relationship 1964-87' (with G Evans and A Heath), Electoral Studies, 10, 99-117, 1991 ‘Self-Reported Snoring and Daytime Sleepiness' (with J Stradling and J Crosby), Thorax, 46, 807-810, 1991 ‘The New Facilities of GLIM4' (with R Gilchrist), in Advances in GLIM and Statistical Modelling: Proceedings of the GLIM92 Conference and the 7th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, (Ed Fahrmeir et. al.), 1-5, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1992 Surveys and Statistical Computing. A Westlake, R Banks, C Payne, and T Orchard, (Eds) North Holland, 1992 ‘Statistical Methods for Election Forecasting in the UK 1970-90', in British Elections and Parties Handbook 1992, P Norris, I Crewe, D Denver, and D Broughton, (Eds), Harvester Wheatsheaf, 1992 The GLIM System: Release 4 Manual. B Francis, M Green, and C Payne, (Eds), OUP, 1993 ‘Unemployment and Peripheral Work' (with J Payne), Work, Employment and Society, 7, 513-534, 1993 ‘Recession, restructuring and the fate of the unemployed: evidence in the underclass debate' (with J Payne), Sociology, 28, 1-19, 1994 ‘The Accuracy of Recall and Proxy Data in the LFS' (with J Payne), LMS User, 1993 ‘Modelling Trends in Multiway Tables' (with A Heath and J Payne), in A Dale and R Davies(Eds), Analysing Social and Political Change: a Casebook of Methods, Sage, 1994 ‘Trends in job loss and recruitment in Britain, 1979-91' (with J Payne), chapter 7 in Unemployment and Public Policy in a Changing Labour Market. M White (Ed), PSI, 1994 ‘Long term unemployment: risk factors and outcomes - an analysis of data from the National Child Development Study' (with J Payne and S Connolly). PSI Report for the Department of Employment and the Employment Service, Nov 1994. ‘Evaluation of methods for ecological inference' (with N Cleave and P Brown), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 158, 55-72, 1995 ‘Forecasting the 1992 Election: the BBC Experience' (with J Curtice), in Political Communications, the General Election Campaign of 1992, I Crewe and B Gosschalk (Eds), Cambridge University Press, 1995 ‘Testing the tightening bond hypothesis: An application of new models for analysing trends in multiway tables' (with J Payne and C O'Muircheartaigh ), Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 47, 181-201, 1995 Modelling the Class-party Relationship in Britain, 1964-92 (with A Heath and G Evans), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 158, 563-574, 1995 Individual risk factors and outcomes: an analysis of data from the DSS/OPCS Retirement Study (with B Casey), PSI Report to the Employment Department and Employment Service, Feb 1995 Employment Training and Employment Action: an evaluation by the matched comparison method (with J Payne, M White and S Lissenburgh). Department for Education and Employment Research Series, No 74, March 1996 ‘Class and party revisited: a new model for estimating changes in levels of class voting' (with G Evans and A Heath), in British Elections and Parties Handbook 1995, C Rallings et al (Eds), 157-174, Frank Cass, 1996 ‘Efficacy of schemes for the unemployed: discrete time survival analysis' (with D Firth), Statistical Modelling, Proceedings of the 11th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, 308-315, Orvieto, 1996 Long Term Unemployment: Individual Risk Factors and Outcomes (with J Payne, B Casey and S Connolly). PSI Publishing, 1996 Survey and Statistical Computing 1996, Proceedings of the Second ASC International Conference (joint Editor), Association for Survey Computing, 1996 Efficacy of Programmes for the Unemployed: Discrete-time Modelling of Duration Data from a Matched-comparison Study (with J Payne and D Firth), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 162 111-120, 1999 Forecasting on British Election Night 1997 (with P Brown and D Firth), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 162, 211-226, 1999 ‘Class: Labour as a Catch-All Party?' (with A Heath and G Evans), chapter 5 in Critical Elections: British Parties and Elections in Long-Term Perspective, ed G Evans and P Norris, Sage, 1999 Work-based Training and Job prospects for the Unemployed: an evaluation of Training for Work (with J Payne, S Lissenburg and M Range), Department of Education and Employment Research Report RR96, 1999 ‘The Impact of Work-Based Training on Job Prospects for the Unemployed' (with J Payne, S Lissenburgh and M Range), Labour Market Trends, 107, 355-361, 1999 Helping to win the UK Election with Statistical Models?, Statistical Modelling: Proceedings of the 14th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Eds: Freidl, H., Berghold, A. and Kauermann, 316-323, G. Graz: University of Graz, 1999 ASC 99. Proceedings of the Third ASC International Conference (joint Editor). Association for Survey Computing: Chesham, Bucks, 1999 Early Identification of the Long-term Unemployed (with J Payne), PSI Research Report No 874, Policy Studies Institute, 2000 Social Mobility (with A Heath), chapter 7 in Twentieth-century British Social Trends, A Halsey and J Webb (Eds), Macmillan Press, 2000 Measuring multiple deprivation at the small area level: the Indices of Deprivation 2000 (with other members of the Oxford Index team), Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, 2000 ‘Predicting the 1998 Indian Parliamentary election' (with R Karandikar and Y Yadav), Electoral Studies, 21, 69-89, 2002 ‘Election forecasting in the UK: the BBC's experience', EurAmerica, 33, 193-233, 2003 ‘Electoral reform in Bermuda' (with R. Johnston), Representation, 40, 213-225, 2004
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