John Muellbauer (Official Fellow) continued research under the auspices of his joint ESRC project 'Modelling Cointegrated Processes' with David Hendry. He completed a paper on forecasting US income, incorporating shifts in the reaction functions of policy makers and, inter alia, establishing a strong effect from interest rate policy on subsequent income growth. He completed a number of papers concerned with the mortgage arrears and possessions crisis in the UK, exploiting aggregate as well as regional data and suggesting that a significant policy shift took place in the 1990s, first easing and then toughening again the treatment of defaulters by courts and mortgage lenders. He also finalised papers on the modelling of UK house prices and regional UK consumption.
He presented papers at the conference on the Econometrics of Public Policy in Florence, the Microeconomics of Saving in Lisbon, and the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors property market conference at Bristol. He gave seminars in Cambridge, Oxford, the Bank of Spain and CEMFI, Madrid. He chaired the M Phil examiners in economics and served on the Council of the Royal Economic Society.
Publications
'Productivity and Competitiveness', in T Jenkinson (ed.), Readings in Macroeconomics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
'Consumer Expenditure', in T Jenkinson (ed.), Readings in Macroeconomics. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996.
(with Gavin Cameron) 'Knowledge, Increasing Returns and the UK Production Function' in D Mayes (ed.) Sources of Productivity Growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.