Richard Spady (Official Fellow) finished up the first stage of his work with Byron Shafer (Professorial Fellow) on attitudes and voting with a paper on the US Presidential elections of 1984 and 1992. Spady’s contribution was to develop the methodology for estimating attitudes from categorical responses and a new nonparametric estimator for models of discrete outcomes, in this case the vote. This work was the subject of seminars at Nuffield and the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign). New work on both the methodological and substantive sides was begun during the year.

He also continued work in statistical theory on empirical likelihood and its generalizations and on the pricing of financial derivatives using state price densities. For this latter project he was on (unpaid) leave for Trinity Term.

Richard Spady resigned his Official Fellowship at year-end but will

continue in College as a Senior Research Fellow.