"A Model of Path-Dependence in Decisions over Multiple Propositions"
	
Christian List
Nuffield College, Oxford OX1 1NF, UK.



Abstract: 
Decisions over multiple interconnected propositions are path-dependent
if they depend on the order in which the propositions are considered. 
I develop a model of sequential decision processes over multiple
propositions, focussing on so-called priority-to-the-past processes. 
I prove three main results. (1) Path-dependence of a strong kind occurs
if and only if the initial dispositions of an agent (individual or group) 
on a set of propositions violate strong consistency. Path-dependence of a 
weaker kind occurs if and only if the agent’s initial dispositions are 
strongly consistent, but violate deductive closure. (2) If we impose 
universal domain, anonymity and completeness on a collective 
priority-to-the-past decision process, path-dependencies are unavoidable. 
(3) Path-dependence makes sequential decision processes vulnerable to manipulation
by changes of the decision-path and to manipulation by expression of untruthful 
views on the propositions. I discuss three escape-routes from the problem of 
path-dependence: the special support, dictatorship and domain restriction approaches.

JEL Classification: D71, D72