Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: María Dolores Martínez Miranda
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Granada & Cass Business School, London
Author-Email: mmiranda@ugr.es
Author-Name: Bent Nielsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Nuffield College, Oxford University
Author-Email: bent.nielsen@nuffield.ox.ac.uk
Author-Name: Jens Perch Nielsen
Author-Workplace-Name: Cass Business School, London
Author-Email: Jens.Nielsen.1@city.ac.uk
Title: Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality
Abstract: It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No
measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a doseresponse
model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a
Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure, but without offset. Traditionally
the age-period-cohort is viewed to suffer from an identification problem.
It is shown how to re-parameterize the model in terms of freely varying parameters,
so as to avoid this problem. It is shown how to conduct inference and how
to construct distribution forecasts.
X-Classification-JEL: 
X-Keywords: 
Length: 27 pages
Creation-Date: 2013-03-08
Number: 2013-W05
File-URL: http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/Academic/Economics/Working%20Papers/Documents/2013/Asbestos8mar13.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:1305