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Warden's Report on his Sabbatical Leave For the first time in the College's history, the Warden has been able to take sabbatical leave. I am most grateful to my predecessor for having set in train the change in the statutes which made this possible, to the College Governing Body for having granted me leave, and to Byron Shafer for having fulfilled so effectively the role of Acting Warden.

I was on leave from October 2000 to June 2001, and can attest to the great value of having a nine-month period to devote to uninterrupted research and writing. The pressures on academics today make it difficult in regular times to pursue long-term research programmes. The short deadlines to which we are often subject often preclude the pursuit of new ideas which arise unexpectedly in the course of research and which are often the most fruitful.

The main long-term project on which I embarked, and which continues actively, is the construction of long-run estimates of the distribution of income in OECD countries (in the UK from 1801 to 1999) and the explanation of the long-run evolution of inequality. I had for many years been collecting material. My leave, and the example of Thomas Piketty for France (who has just completed a long time series based on the income tax data), led me to carry out an analysis of top incomes in the United Kingdom based on super-tax (surtax) data. This has resulted in a paper 'Top Incomes in the United Kingdom over the Twentieth Century' which presents estimates for the top 0.05% (the Upper Ten Thousand), top 0.5%, etc. for virtually every year since 1908. The picture supports neither the Kuznets hypothesis of an inverted U-timepath for inequality nor the more recent view of a U-shape. There have been distinct periods of equalization, reversed since 1979 (top income shares have returned to their levels of 50 years ago), separated by periods of relative stability. These UK estimates have been compared with those for France and the United States constructed by Piketty, and this comparison reveals striking differences. I am currently working on estimates for the Netherlands (apparently much more similar to the UK up to the 1970s), New Zealand, Denmark, Canada and Australia. The explanation of these differences raises a number of issues, some of which I discussed in a paper presented to the Mannheim meeting of Research Committee 28 of the International Sociological Association in April 2001, although the more thought I give to the problem of explaining the distribution of income the less certain I become that I understand its manifold determinants.

The work on long-run estimates grows out of a more general concern with data quality in this field. At the beginning of my leave I finished a paper with Andrea Brandolini (begun when he was a Jemolo Fellow) on secondary data sets, criticising the use made of income inequality data in recent work on growth and macroeconomics (this article has been published in the Journal of Economic Literature). In July 2001 I gave the inaugural Alfred Cowles Lecture at the Australasian Meetings of the Econometric Society in Auckland on the subject of data quality. At a more technical level, I became dissatisfied with the Pareto interpolation method widely applied to tabulated data, and have written a paper advocating an approach based on bounds, using results of Joseph Gastwirth.

The second main field of research has concerned the economic implications of reforms of the welfare state. In particular, what is the relationship between measures to increase the flexibility of labour markets (such as reducing hiring/firing costs and reducing trade union bargaining power), and proposals to scale back the generosity of social protection? Empirical studies of unemployment typically posit a straightforward trade-off between policy variables; on the other hand, policy statements often suggest that the two measures are 'complementary' and that action on both fronts is necessary. Use of a formal search model of unemployment allows us to highlight the ambiguity surrounding the use by economists of the word 'complementarity'. This ambiguity is well known from consumer theory and, after an embarrassingly long time, I realised that it was indeed clearly set out by Hicks in Value and Capital (1946). The fact that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation does not mean that governments have no choice about the mix of policy to pursue. A country can combine measures to increase labour market flexibility with improved social protection. The choice made depends on the specification of government objectives, an issue is not widely considered in the macro-economic literature. In an article entitled 'The Strange Disappearance of Welfare Economics', I discussed the disappearance from economics of discussion of the principles underlying normative statements, taking as an example the optimal level of capital accumulation over time. This is not a remote, academic exercise: whether or not we are saving enough is a key political concern. A proper basis for welfare prescriptions is essential because there is scope for significant differences of view about the form of social objectives and these differences can seriously affect the conclusions drawn.

Alongside this research, I was also able to undertake three pieces of more policy-oriented work. Together with Michel Glaude, Lucile Olier and Thomas Piketty, I prepared a report for the Conseil d'Analyse Economique on the subjects of Inégalités économiques, presented to the French Prime Minister in June 2001. I was asked by the Belgian Government to chair a group preparing a report, as part of their Presidency of the European Union, on social indicators to be used as part of the post-Lisbon social agenda. The report, written jointly with Bea Cantillon, Eric Marlier and Brian Nolan, was discussed at a conference in Antwerp in September 2001, and is due to be published by Oxford University Press in January 2002. Finally, I chaired a committee reviewing the research supported by the Commissariat du Plan in Paris.

Publications
(with M Glaude, L Olier and T Piketty) Inégalités économiques. Paris: La documentation française, 2001.
'The Distribution of Personal Income: Complex Yet Over-simplified', in R Hauser and I Becker (eds.), The Personal Distribution of Income in an International Perspective. Berlin: Springer, 2000.
(with M Weale) 'James Meade', Proceedings of the British Academy, 105, 2000.
(with F Bourguignon, C O'Donoghue, H Sutherland and F Utili) 'Microsimulation and the Formulation of Policy: A Case Study of Targeting in the European Union', in T Atkinson, H Glennerster and N Stern (eds.), Putting Economics to Work: Volume in Honour of Michio Morishima. London: STICERD, LSE, 2000.
'The Welfare State, Budgetary Pressure and Labour Market Shifts', Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 102, 2000.
'The Strange Disappearance of Welfare Economics', Kyklos, 54, 2001.
'The Transatlantic Consensus on Rising Income Inequality', The World Economy, 24, 2001.
(with A Brandolini) 'Promise and Pitfalls in the Use of "Secondary Data Sets": Income Inequality in OECD Countries as a Case Study', Journal of Economic Literature, 39, 2001.
'Rischi della nuova economia e ruolo del welfare nell'inclusisociale', Quaderni rassegna sindicale - lavori, 47, 2001.

Acting Warden - Byron Shafer (Professorial Fellow and Acting Warden) organized, convened, and participated in the Senior Research Seminar in American Politics in Michaelmas and Trinity Terms; organized and presented, jointly with David Mayhew, the lecture series on 'The American Elections of 2000' in Michaelmas Term; and organized, presented, and participated in the lecture series on 'The State of American Politics' during Hilary and Trinity Terms. He was also Acting Warden of Nuffield for all of academic 2000/2001.

Otherwise, he continued to pursue three book-length projects: The Transformation of American Politics: Structural Change and Partisan Shift in the Postwar Period, with Richard G C Johnston; Mapping the Political Landscape: Policy Positions and Social Coalitions in Postwar American Politics, with Richard H Spady; and Public Wishes: Issue Evolution, Policy Preference, and Voting Behaviour in Postwar American Politics, with William J M Claggett.

Publications
(editor) The State of American Politics. Boulder, CO: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001.
'The Search for the "New Centre"', in B E Shafer (ed.), The State of American Politics. Boulder, CO: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001.
(editor with A J Badger) Contesting Democracy: Substance and Structure in American Political History, 1775-2000. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 2001.
'Issue Evolution, Economic Development, and Partisan Shift: 1955-2000', in B E Shafer and A J Badger (eds.), Contesting Democracy: Substance and Structure in American Political History, 1775-2000. Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 2001.
'"Who, What, When, Where, and How," Review Essay on Olivier Zunz, "Why the American Century?"' Journal of Policy History, 12, 2000.

Robert Allen (Professorial Fellow) worked in three main areas. The first was the economic history of the Soviet Union: How rapidly did the economy grow? What happened to living standards? Which policies and institutions promoted development and which frustrated it? The first draft of a book was completed. He delivered the Innis Memorial Lecture to the Canadian Economics Association on 'The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy'.

The second project deals with the origins of the industrial revolution in Europe. The empirical base of this work is the compilation of a data bank of wages and prices from the middle ages to the 19th century for 17 European cities. These data allow the measurement of economic integration and the divergence of real wages in the early modern period. Statistical analysis of these data has been pursued, and an econometric model of economic development estimated.

Much effort has been devoted to extending the comparisons of living standards to Japan, India, and China, so levels of development can be compared across the world. When did Europe's lead really emerge? He is co-editing the volume of the proceedings of one conference on the subject and organizing a session at the next meeting of the International Economic History Association on this question.

The third project, done in collaboration with Ian Keay, deals with the history of whales and whaling. Attention has centred on the extinction of bowhead whales in the eastern Arctic between 1600 and 1900. A biological model has been developed to reconstruction the history of the stock and a simulation model of the whaling industry has been estimated to explore the causes of extinction. What would it have been taken to save the whales? The work will be extended to other species.

He is a member of the editorial board of the European Review of Economic History.

Publications
'Economic Structure and Agricultural Productivity in Europe, 1300 1800', European Review of Economic History, 3, 2000.
'Community and Market in England: Open Fields and Enclosures Revisited', in M Aoki and Y Hayami (eds.), Communities and Markets in Economic Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.

Mark Armstrong (Official Fellow) continues to work on the interactions between competition and regulation. Much of this work is joint with David Sappington. He finally completed a large-scale survey of the theory of access pricing and interconnection, to be published next year.

He is Managing Editor of the Review of Economic Studies. He sits on the editorial boards of the Journal of Industrial Economics and the Rand Journal of Economics. He is currently co-editing Volume III of the Handbook of Industrial Organization (North Holland). He gave seminars in Florence, Gerzensee, and Venice, and presented a lecture on 'Converging communications: implications for regulation' to the Institute of Economic Affairs. He acts as external economic advisor to OFTEL and to the Office of Fair Trading.

Publications
'Access Pricing, Bypass and Universal Service', American Economic Review, 91 (Papers and Proceedings), 2001.
'Regulation and Inefficient Entry', in G Kochendorfer-Lucius and B Pleskovic (eds.), The Institutional Foundations of a Market Economy. Washington: The World Bank, 2001.

Michael Biggs (Research Fellow) is endlessly rewriting a book on the strike wave of 1886 in Chicago. It addresses the volatility of collective protest: why a mass movement can emerge suddenly, appear powerful, and yet collapse quickly. Three instalments took tangible shape. 'Positive Feedback in Collective Mobilization' (Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, 40) explains why workers came to believe that strikes for the eight-hour day would succeed. As each new group of workers became hopeful enough to organize, the fact of their organization inspired other groups to follow suit. 'Strikes as Sequences of Interaction' (forthcoming in Social Science History) analyses the mass strikes of May 1886. It emphasizes how employers offered concessions only to revoke them some months later, forcing workers either to strike at an inopportune moment or to surrender. 'Fractal Waves: Strikes as Forest Fires' (presented to the American Sociological Association) borrows from recent work on natural events like landslides and earthquakes. It applies a simple 'forest fire' model to collective protest. This predicts a power-law distribution of event sizes, and this prediction is confirmed for strikes in the 1880s. To occupy his leisure, he began a new research project (with Kenneth Andrews at Harvard University) on the diffusion of sit-ins against segregation in the American South in 1960.

Publication
'Putting the State on the Map: Cartography, Territory, and European State Formation', Comparative Studies in Society and History, 41, 1999.

Christopher Bliss (Professorial Fellow) is drawing together research that has absorbed him for much of the last decade on international trade, capital movements and economic convergence. At present this work is to be found in papers on his web page, several in process by journals. A book to be entitled Trade, Growth and Inequality is under active preparation. This volume adapts and extends trade theory to better mirror current institutions and to address the issue of economic inequality more adequately than does received theory. Economic growth and convergence are also central concerns of the argument. A leading contribution of this book is the subversion of the idea that economic theory shows that convergence is to be expected. It is not because the core assumptions of the convergence models are probably inaccurate that these models should be questioned. Even given these core assumptions, convergence, particularly of incomes, is uncertain, and in any case less simply structured than much received theory indicates.

Stephen Bond (Gwilym Gibbon Research Fellow in Public Economics) worked part-time at Nuffield, as well as being Director of the Corporate Sector research programme at the Institute for Fiscal Studies in London.

His main research during the last year has concerned the behaviour of share prices and their relationship with company investment (with Jason Cummins, NYU); the effects of uncertainty on investment dynamics (with Nicholas Bloom and John Van Reenen, IFS and Domenico Lombardi, Oxford); the effects of companies' share ownership structures on their productivity and investment (with Andrea Bettoni, Oxford, and Chiara Criscuolo, UCL); the relationship between cash flow and investment in Belgium, France, Germany and the UK (with Julie Elston, UCF, Jacques Mairesse, CREST, and Benoît Mulkay, Antilles et Guyane); the design of a non-distortionary corporate tax (with Michael Devereux, Warwick); estimation of empirical growth models (with Anke Hoeffler, Oxford, and Jon Temple, Bristol); statistical inference based on Generalized Method of Moments estimators in dynamic panel data models (with Clive Bowsher, Oxford, and Frank Windmeijer, IFS); and testing for unit roots in this context (with Celine Nauges, UCL, and Frank Windmeijer, IFS). A new research project was started on the effects of capital market imperfections on company investment in the UK, and a review of earlier research on this topic was prepared for HM Treasury.

Presentations were made to seminars at HM Treasury, the Research Council of Norway, CEMFI (Madrid), Columbia and New York Universities in the US, and at Edinburgh, Exeter and Warwick Universities in the UK. Presentations were also made at the NBER Summer Institute and the Econometric Society European Meeting in Lausanne.

Bond continued to be a member of the ESRC Research College in Politics, Economics and Geography. During the year he was appointed to be a Deputy Director of the new ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy, based at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Publications
(with R Blundell and F Windmeijer) 'Estimation in Dynamic Panel Data Models: Improving on the Performance of the Standard GMM Estimator', in B H Baltagi (ed.), Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels. New York: JAI Elsevier, 2000.
'UK Investment and the Capital Market', in Economic Growth and Public Policy. HM Treasury, 2001
(http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/docs/2001/growth_sem/).

Michael Brock (Honorary Fellow). For Michael Brock the year began with final preparations for the publication, on 4 December 2000, of 19th-Century Oxford, Part 2. The appearance of this volume, the second which he had edited with Mark Curthoys, represented the completion of the eight-volume History of the University of Oxford, and, at the party in the Sheldonian on publication day, there were speeches by Lord Bullock, who had initiated the project, and by the Vice-Chancellor and the High Steward. After completing his article on Venetia Stanley (later Mrs Edwin Montagu) for the New Dictionary of National Biography, he restarted work, with his wife, on an edition for OUP of selections from Margot Asquith's Diaries, 1908-1916. In 2001, he, and the co-editors concerned, sanctioned digital publication, under OUP's arrangements, of 19th-Century Oxford, Part 1, and of H.H. Asquith: Letters to Venetia Stanley.

Publications
(edited with Mark Curthoys) 19th-Century Oxford, Part 2. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000.
Chapter 1 'A "Plastic Structure"', in M Brock and M Curtoys (eds.), 19th-Century Oxford, Part 2. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000.
Chapter 31 'The Oxford of Raymond Asquith and Willie Elmhirst', in M Brock and M Curtoys (eds.), 19th-Century Oxford, Part 2. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000.
Chapter 33 'Epilogue', in M Brock and M Curtoys (eds.), 19th-Century Oxford, Part 2. Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000.
'The Unofficial Side', Oxford Today, 13.1, Michaelmas Issue, 2000.

Liam Brunt (Prize Research Fellow). The project on English grain prices that was introduced to readers in last year's report (q.v.) has made a great deal of headway. Several papers have been written with Edmund Cannon (Bristol University) and we have made some interesting discoveries. Most notably, we have established that by 1770 (when the data begin) local grain markets were weakly efficient; we have used the intra-year price movement to estimate local interest rates; and we have shown that these converged over time in response to the entry of banks into local markets. We are currently working on several more papers to exploit the data set more fully.

I am currently starting a project on European agricultural productivity between 1700 and 1850. The aim is to quantify and explain the variation in labour productivity across countries and over time. We may then better understand how England was able to release labour to industry much earlier than other countries, and what role was played by technological advance in this process.

Papers were presented at the universities of Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), Cambridge, Essex, Southern California (Los Angeles) and Warwick; and also at the 2001 conferences of the Royal Economic Society (Durham), the Economic History Society (Glasgow), and the European Historical Economics Society (Oxford). The European Historical Economics Society awarded me the Gino Luzzatto Prize for the best thesis in economic history completed in the last two years; and I have been shortlisted for the Thesis Prize of the 2002 World Economic History Congress (which necessitates an expenses-paid trip to Buenos Aires!).

Publication
'The Advent of the Sample Survey in the Social Sciences', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, series D, 50, part 2, 2001.

David Butler (Emeritus Fellow) wrote, with Dennis Kavanagh, The British General Election of 2001 (the 17th in the Nuffield series of election histories). As Chair of the Hansard Society he ran conferences in College on election broadcasting and (for the Electoral Commission) on electoral law and practice. He worked with Godfrey Hodgson on Media and Politics seminars. He has continued to amass material for the projected history of Nuffield College. On 19 September a party was held in the Senior Common Room to commemorate the 50th anniversary of his Fellowship.

Lucy Carpenter (Faculty Fellow) continued to contribute to research based in rural Uganda evaluating population-based methods for reducing rates of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The main method being evaluated is a behavioural change programme - either alone, or in combination with improved management of other STIs - with 18 communities randomly allocated either to receive these interventions or not (controls). Data collection for this very large study involved three population-based surveys, each comprising over 20,000 adults. Analysis of data is now near completion. This work is in collaboration with the MRC Programme on AIDS in Entebbe and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). A related area of research in which she has been actively engaged is an international collaboration on HIV and cancer, organized by the ICRF Cancer Epidemiology Unit.

In addition to the above, she has renewed collaborations with Sir David Cox and colleagues at the Leukaemia Research Fund and LSHTM on work investigating the association between cancer and occupation. This is based around the analysis of routinely collected cancer registration data. A final report on these analyses is currently being prepared.

Publications
(with R Gopal, T Gibbs, M J Slomka, J Whitworth, A Vyse and D W Brown) 'A Monoclonal Blocking EIA for Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Antibody: Validation for Seroepidemiological Studies in Africa', Journal of Virological Methods, 87, 2000.
(with B Zaba, T Boerma, S Gregson, J Nakiyingi and M Urassa) 'Adjusting Ante-natal Clinic Data for Improved Estimates of HIV Prevalence among Women in Sub-Saharan Africa', AIDS, 14, 2000.
(with the International Collaboration of HIV and Cancer) 'The Impact of Highly Active Anti-retroviral Therapy on the Incidence of Cancer in People Infected with the Human Immunodeficiency Virus', Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 92, 2000.
(with S Mbulaiteye, A Ruberantwari, J S Nakiyingi, A Kamali and J A Whitworth) 'Alcohol and HIV: A Study among Sexually Active Adults in Rural Southwest Uganda', International Journal of Epidemiology, 29, 2000.
(with G R Law, J Simpson, E Roman, D R Cox and N E S Machonochie) 'Large Tables', Biostatistics, 2, 2001.
(with R Newton, J Zeigler, V Beral, E Mbidde, H Wabinga, S Mbulaiteye, P Appleby, G Reeves and H Jaffe) 'A Case-control Study of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection and Cancer in Adults and Children Residing in Kampala, Uganda', International Journal of Cancer, 92, 2001.
(with J Kinsman, J Nakiyingi, A Kamali, M Quigley, R Pool and J Whitworth) 'Evaluation of a Comprehensive School-based AIDS Education Programme in Rural Masaka, Uganda', Health Education Research, 16, 2001.

Sir David Cox (Honorary Fellow). His research on a range of issues in theoretical and applied statistics continued along the broad lines of previous years, involving in many cases international collaborations. He continued to work with N Wermuth (Mainz), an Associate Member of the College, on Markov Graphs, techniques for handling relatively complex dependencies such as arise in social science and other applications. With N Reid (Toronto), P J Solomon (Adelaide) and P Hall (ANU, Canberra) he worked on more theoretical issues and with V S Isham (UCL) and H Wheater (IC) on hydrological matters.

He continued to be a member of the Independent Scientific Group advising DEFRA (previously MAFF) on bovine TB, this involving a wide range of statistical considerations working in collaboration with C A Donnelly (IC), also an Associate Member of the College. He joined the Strain Typing subgroup of SEAC, the group dealing with BSE and v-CJD.

He served as Chairman of Trustees of the Biometrika Trust. The journal Biometrika celebrated the 100th anniversary of its foundation (by Karl Pearson and others). He was co-editor of a commemorative book published by Oxford University Press.

During the year a Local Group of the Royal Statistical Society was established and he serves as Chairman. The Group holds most of its meetings in the College.
He was elected an Honorary Fellow of Birkbeck College, London.

Seminars and lectures were given at various places, including the DeGroot Memorial Lecture at Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, and opening papers to conferences on Health-Related Quality of Life (Vannes) and on Longitudinal Data (Seattle). He also visited Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, University of Adelaide and Centre for Mathematics and its Applications, ANU, Canberra. He spent one week as an invited research worker at Stern Business School and at Department of Epidemiology, NYU, New York City.

Publications
'Some Remarks on Likelihood Factorization', in A van der Vaart et al (eds.), IMS Lecture Note Series 36, Papers in Honor of W. van Zwet, 2000.
'The Five Faces of Bayesian Statistics', Calcutta Statistical Association Bulletin, 50, 2000.
'Biometrika: The First 100 Years', Biometrika, 88, 2001.
(with N Wermuth) 'Some Statistical Aspects of Causality', European Sociological Review, 17, 2001.
(with C A Donnelly) 'Mathematical Biology and Medical Statistics: Contributions to the Understanding of AIDS Epidemiology', Statistical Methods in Medical Research, 10, 2001.
(with M B Gravenor, L J Hoinville, A Hoek, and A R McLean) 'The Flock-to-flock Force of Infection for Scrapie in Britain', Proceedings of the Royal Society, London B, 268.
(with H Wheater and 7 others) 'Spatial-temporal Rainfall Fields: Modeling and Statistical Aspects', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4, 2000.
(with R J Moore, D A Jones and V S Isham) 'Design of the HYREX Raingauge Network', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 4, 2000.
(with G R Law, J Simpson, E Roman, L Carpenter and N E S Machonochie) 'Large Tables', Biostatistics, 2, 2001.

John Darwin (Faculty Fellow) continued work on his history of the British empire since c.1840. In October 2000 he presented a paper on 'globalism and imperialism' to a conference on international aspects of British imperialism at Osaka University of Foreign Studies. In January 2001, he gave a short paper on 'Churchill and Empire' to a conference on Churchill held at the Institute of Historical Research in London. In April, he presented a paper on 'Empire and security' to a conference on 'The International Ethics of Security' held at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver. In May he gave a paper on 'When did the Empire really end?' at a conference on 'Canada and the End of Empire' held at the Institute of Commonwealth Studies in London. Also in May he gave the opening lecture on 'The Mediterranean and empire in the age of decolonization' at a conference on 'Cyprus and the impact of colonialism' held in Nicosia. In September he visited Canada for archival research in Ottawa and Kingston Ontario.

In March 2001 he was appointed a member of the History Panel of the Arts and Humanities Research Board.

Publications
'The Rhodes Trust in the Age of Empire', in A Kenny (ed.), The History of the Rhodes Trust. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
'Diplomacy and Decolonization', in K Fedorowich and M Thomas (eds.), International Diplomacy and Colonial Retreat. London: Frank Cass, 2001.

Jurgen A Doornik (Research Fellow) continued working on the ESRC project 'Modelling Non-Stationarity in Economic Time Series' (with David Hendry, John Muellbauer, Bent Nielsen and Luca Nunziata). He started working on a strategy for high-performance computing in econometrics, leading towards a presentation at the Royal Society in October 2001 (with David Hendry and Neil Shephard). A Beowolf cluster, consisting of a master PC and four slaves, has been built with the help of Steve Moyle and Richard Gascoigne. This has, rather grandly, been named NuSCI: the Nuffield supercomputer initiative. This cluster is running Linux, and is operational. The main goal is to reduce the development costs of high-performance computing in econometrics by focusing on the Ox programming language.

A major update of econometric and statistical software was completed this year. PcGive was entirely rewritten from the C/C++ languages to the Ox language. Much new econometrics was added to PcGive. PcNaive, which is an interactive program for designing Monte Carlo experiments, was also finished (with David Hendry). Most of the output is graphical, and we see it as a very useful complement to the teaching of econometrics.

He presented papers at two conferences: Computational Economics (Yale) and 9th ESTE (Bello Horizonte, Brazil). At the latter he also presented a workshop on the Ox programming language. While in Brazil, he also gave a paper the University of Recife, and an Ox workshop at the department of statistics of the University of São Paolo. He contributed to OxMetrics workshops in São Paolo, London and Washington.

Publications
(with A Beyer and D F Hendry) 'Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data', Economic Journal, 111, 2001.
(with A Beyer and D F Hendry) 'Re-constructing Aggregate Euro-Zone Data', Journal of Common Market Studies, 38, 2000.
(with D F Hendry) Interactive Monte Carlo Experimentation in Econometrics using PcNaive. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
(with D F Hendry) Econometric Modelling using PcGive, Volume III. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
New editions of:
- (with D F Hendry) GiveWin: An Interface to Empirical Modelling
- (with D F Hendry) Empirical Econometric Modelling using PcGive, Volume I.
- (with D F Hendry) Modelling Dynamic Systems using PcGive, Volume II.
- Object-Oriented Matrix Programming using Ox.
- (with M Ooms) - Introduction to Ox.
London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.

Jim Engle-Warnick (Post-doctoral Research Fellow) discovered that trust can be both fragile and robust. In a series of economics experiments (with Robert L Slonim of Case Western Reserve University) subjects played a sequence of repeated trust games. The stage game (i.e. one round of the game) contains an action that cannot be guaranteed contractually, and the timing of the end of the repeated game is uncertain. We found that trust is fragile in the sense that the realization of the uncertain number of rounds of the repeated game affected the level of trust in the next game. However, we found that trust is robust in the sense that the long-term level of trust was unaffected. The results shed light on the resiliency of trust and are perplexing for some boundedly rational models of learning; they are important for understanding the role of trust, a component of social capital, in the performance of incomplete contracts.

This research is a part of an agenda that seeks to build an empirically based model of repeated game strategies. Understanding the strategies that people play in games would improve the ability of social scientists to predict outcomes in economic and social mechanisms. The difficulty is that, while the actions that people take are observable, the strategies that generated them are not. In a series of papers Jim and his colleagues found that (1) in trust games Trustors (i.e. people who must trust to fulfil a contract) tend to play strategies that punish people who do not fulfil trust while Trustees (i.e. people who must reciprocate trust to fulfil a contract) tend to be more opportunistic; (2) that threshold strategies in the form of if-then statements can characterize behaviour in ultimatum bargaining games; and (3) that a simple decision rule can help to understand complicated decision-making by the US Federal Reserve (with John Duffy of the University of Pittsburgh). These papers are posted at http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/users/warnick/front_page.htm and http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/Economics/papers/2001/index2001.htm.

Jim presented his research at the University of Oxford Department of Economics Experimental Economics Seminar (twice), University College London, and the Annual Conference of the Society for Computational Economics. He was a referee for papers submitted to The Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control and Economic Modelling.

Geoffrey Evans (Official Fellow) continued his research into British political behaviour with a study demonstrating the importance of the parties' positions on European integration for voting in the 2001 general election. He also modelled the dynamics of the relations between political partisanship and perceptions of the economy across the electoral cycle (with Bob Andersen) demonstrating that much previous research over-estimates the importance of the economy for voters' decisions. During the summer he was involved in designing surveys of Northern Ireland that form part of the current ESRC programme on devolution.

His research into democratic development in post-communist societies continued with a comparative study examining how and why class divisions in political behaviour are emerging in the region; in April he was awarded an ESRC research grant to continue his research into class formation in post-communist Russia (with Stephen Whitefield). Natalia Letki and he are continuing to examine the political consequences of the low levels of 'social capital' in postcommunist societies. Their research demonstrates the inadequacy of currently influential conceptions of the relationship between social trust and democratic development. They propose instead that the most likely relationship between politics and social capital in transition societies is a 'top down' process through which social capital forms in response to deficiencies in the political and economic functioning of such systems. His work on ethnic relations in post-communist societies continued with a 13-nation study of the integration of formerly dominant minorities into the new democratic systems in the region (with Christine Lipsmeyer).

Papers on these and other topics were given at the Midwest Political Science Association annual meeting in Chicago in April; the bi-annual meeting of Research Committee 28 of the International Sociological Association in Berkeley and the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in San Francisco, in August; and the annual EPOP conference at the University of Sussex in September. He also gave invited presentations on social trust in postcommunist societies at the University of Santiago de Compostela in October 2000 and (with Natalia Letki) at the British Academy in September 2001.

As a member of the ESRC's Post-graduate Training Board, and the Board's Research and Advanced Course Recognition Panel he completed the revision of the core methods training accreditation requirements for the social sciences. He continued as editor of Electoral Studies and review editor of the European Sociological Review.

Publications
'The Working Class and New Labour: A Parting of the Ways?' British Social Attitudes, the 17th Report. London: Sage, 2000.
(with C Mills) 'In Search of the Wage-Labour/Service Contract', British Journal of Sociology, 51, 2000.
(with S Whitefield) 'Popular Attitudes Towards the West and Support for Markets and Democracy in Eastern Europe', in J Zielonka and A Pravda (eds.), Democratic Consolidation in Eastern Europe: International and Transnational Factors. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with A Need) 'Analysing Patterns of Religious Participation in Postcommunist Eastern Europe', British Journal of Sociology, 52, 2001.
(with B O'Leary and P Mitchell) 'Northern Ireland: Flanking Extremists Bite the Moderates and Emerge in their Clothes', in P Norris, (ed.), Britain Votes 2001. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with C Lipsmeyer) 'The Democratic Experience in Divided Societies: the Baltic States in Comparative Perspective', Journal of Baltic Studies, 32, 2001.

Erik Eyster (Post-doctoral Research Fellow). This year, Erik continued work on old projects and began several new ones. With Jimmy Chan (Johns Hopkins, who visited Nuffield in Trinity term), he revised one paper on the effects of banning affirmative action from college admissions and started another one exploring why an electorate might vote to ban affirmative action. With Matthew Rabin (UC Berkeley), Erik completed a draft of a paper introducing a game-theory solution concept whereby players underuse the information contained in one another's actions. They also worked on a paper exploring the implications of Kahneman and Tversky's 'loss-aversion' in auction bidding. Finally, Erik worked on a paper modeling a decision maker with a preference for taking actions that cause her not to regret her previous actions.

Erik gave talks at Essex, Gerzensee, the LSE, Nottingham, Oxford, and UCL.

David Firth (Faculty Fellow) worked with colleagues in a variety of research fields on statistical problems, as well as pursuing more 'basic' methodological research. For the General Election in June he again provided (with Neil Shephard and Clive Payne) the on-the-night seats forecasts for the BBC's television and radio coverage. The sequence of forecasts proved to be remarkably accurate, and so passed without the otherwise mandatory hoots of derision from the press. Success in that endeavour is attributable partly to luck (early declared results that are not too unrepresentative), and partly to a new exit-poll design which permitted a reliable on-air seats forecast even before the first declaration. A novel application of a network-flow optimization algorithm, borrowed from transportation research, was used to colour Peter Snow's maps and other televised graphics on the basis of probabilistic outputs from a predictive model.

He is Joint Editor of the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Statistical Methodology), Chairman of the Research Section of the Royal Statistical Society, and a member of the European Regional Committee of the Bernoulli Society. He is also on the newly-formed National Statistics Methodology Advisory Committee, which will provide advice to government statisticians on a range of methodological issues relevant to National Statistics.

Publications
(with M Bartley, R Fitzpatrick and M Marmot) 'Social Distribution of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors: Change among Men in England 1984-1993', Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 54, 2000.
(with M Bartley, A Sacker, R Fitzpatrick and K Lynch) 'Towards Explaining Health Inequalities', British Medical Journal, 321, 2000.
(with M Bartley, A Sacker and R Fitzpatrick) 'Dimensions of Inequality and the Health of Women', in H Graham (ed.), Understanding Health Inequalities. Buckingham: Open University Press, 2000.
(with A Sacker, M Bartley and R Fitzpatrick) 'Dimensions of Social Inequality in the Health of Women in England: Occupational, Material and Behavioural Pathways', Social Science and Medicine, 52, 2001.
(with A Sacker, M Bartley, R Fitzpatrick and M Marmot) 'The Relationship between Job Strain and Coronary Heart Disease: Evidence from an English Sample of the Working Male Population', Psychological Medicine, 31, 2001.

Stephen Fisher (Post-doctoral Research Fellow) has continued to work on British and Belgian electoral behaviour. Together with David Myatt of St Catherine's College, he was awarded a grant from the British Academy and conducted laboratory experiments to test theories of tactical voting. Preliminary results suggest that people pay equal attention to both public and private sources of information. This is consistent with the decision theoretic, but not the game theoretic, model of tactical voting developed by David Myatt. These findings were presented to the American Political Science Association meeting in San Francisco.

Also presented at this meeting was a paper exploring the relationship between turnout and tactical voting. Many of the factors that influence turnout in Britain also influence tactical voting, creating the potential for sample selection bias in models of tactical voting. However, methods designed to correct for differential turnout suggest that selection bias is not a serious problem.

Papers on tactical voting were also presented at the EUI in Florence, LSE, Nuffield graduate workshop in political science and the Midwest Political Science Association meeting in Chicago.

Work continued on a project together with Marc Swyngedouw of the University of Leuven, Belgium, mapping the positions of political parties using the pattern of electoral change. Data from Flanders shows that the rate of vote switching to and from the extreme-right Vlaams Blok is remarkably similar for each of the mainstream parties. This is consistent with the view that the Blok mobilize primarily on a racist and anti-system dimension which is largely unrelated to the main (economic left-right) dimension of party competition. These results were presented at the Nuffield Sociology Seminar and the Maison Française d'Oxford.

Publications
'Party Preference Structure in England, 1987-97', in P Cowley, D Denver, A Russell and L Harrison (eds.), British Elections and Parties Review, Volume 10. London: Frank Cass, 2000.
'Class Contextual Effects on the Conservative Vote in 1983', British Journal of Political Science, 30, 2000.

Ray Fitzpatrick (Faculty Fellow) began a study with colleagues in Birmingham and Oxford evaluating neurosurgery for Parkinson's Disease. He also began studies with colleagues in Oxford to assess how ethical issues are managed in primary care and how ethical dilemmas in anorexia nervosa are addressed. He served another year as member of the Council of the Medical Research Council and as chair of Health Services and Public Health Research Board (MRC). He became a Governor of the BUPA Research Foundation. He served another year as head of the Department of Public Health, University of Oxford.

Publications
(with R Morris, S Hajat, B Reeves and D Murray) 'The Value of Short and Simple Measures to Assess Outcomes for Patients of Total Hip Replacement Surgery', Quality in Health Care, 9, 2000.
(with M Campbell, A Haines, A L Kinmonth, P Sandercock and D Spiegelhalter) 'Framework for the Design and Evaluation of Complex Interventions to Improve Health', British Medical Journal, 321, 2000.
(with A Sacker, M Bartley, D Firth) 'Comparing Health Inequality in Men and Women', British Medical Journal, 321, 2000.
(with M Bartley, A Sacker, D Firth and K Lynch) 'Towards Explaining Health Inequalities', British Medical Journal, 321, 2000.
(with M Bartley, D Firth and M Marmot) 'Social Distribution of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors: Changes Among Men in England 1984-93', Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 54, 2000.
(with C Jenkinson, G Levy and A Garratt) 'The Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Assessment Questionnaire (ALSAQ-40): Tests of Data Quality, Score Reliability and Response Rate in a Survey of Patients', Journal of Neurological Sciences, 180, 2000.
(with C Jenkinson, M Swash and V Peto) 'The ALS-Health Profile Study: Quality of Life of ALS Patients and Carers in Europe', Journal of Neurology, 247, 2000.
(with C Jenkinson) 'Reduced Item Set for the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Assessment Questionnaire: Development and Validation of the ALSAQ-5', Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry, 70, 2001.
(with C Davey, M Buxton, D Jones) 'Criteria for Assessing Patient Based Outcome Measures for Use in Clinical Trials', in A Stevens, K Abrams, J Brazier, R Fitzpatrick and R Lilford, eds.), Advanced Handbook of Methods in Evidence Based Healthcare. London: Sage Publications, 2001.
(with K Johnston, M Buxton and D Jones) 'Collecting Resource Use Data for Costing in Clinical Trials', in A Stevens, K Abrams, J Brazier, R Fitzpatrick, and R Lilford, (eds.), Advanced Handbook of Methods in Evidence Based Healthcare. London: Sage Publications, 2001.
(with A Stevens, K Abrams, J Brazier and R Lilford, eds.), Advanced Handbook of Methods in Evidence Based Health Care. London: Sage Publications, 2001.
(with A Sacker, M Bartley and D Firth) 'Dimensions of Social Inequality in the Health of Women in England: Occupational Material and Behavioural Pathways', Social Science and Medicine, 52, 2001.
(with M Bartley, A Sacker and D Firth) 'Dimensions of Inequality and the Health of Women', in H Graham (ed.), Understanding Health Inequalities. Buckingham: Open University Press, 2001.
(with A Sacker, M Bartley, D Firth and M Marmot) 'The Relationship Between Job Strain and Coronary Heart Disease: Evidence from an English Sample of the Working Male Population', Psychological Medicine, 31, 2001.
(with R Lilford, A Richardson, A Stevens and S Edwards) 'Issues in Methodological Research: Perspectives from Researchers and Commissioners', Health Technology Assessment, 5, 2001.
(with M Dixon-Woods and K Roberts) 'Including Qualitative Research in Systematic Reviews: Opportunities and Problems', Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 7, 2001.
(with J Hobart, D Lamping, A Riazi and A Thompson) 'The Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29): A New Patient-based Outcome Measure', Brain, 124, 2001.
'Social Status and Mortality', Annals of Internal Medicine, 134, 2001.
(with R Morris, S Hajat, B Reeves, D Murray and D Hanney) 'Primary Total Hip Replacement: Variations in Patient Management in Oxford and Anglia, Trent, Yorkshire and Northern "Regions"', Annals of Royal College of Surgeons of England, 83, 2001.
(with V Peto and C Jenkinson) 'Determining Minimally Important Differences for the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire (PDQ-39)', Age and Ageing, 30, 2001.
(with J Hobart, J Freeman, D Lamping and A Thompson) 'The SF-36 in Multiple Sclerosis: Why Basic Assumptions Must Be Tested', Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry, 71, 2001.
(with C Jenkinson, A Garratt, V Peto and S Stewart-Brown) 'Can Item Response Theory Reduce Patient Burden when Measuring Health Status in Neurological Disorders? Results from Rasch Analysis of the SF-36 Physical Functioning Scale (PF-10)', Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry, 71, 2001.
(with J Dawson, G Hill and A Carr) 'The Benefits of Using Patient-based Methods of Assessment. Medium-term Results of an Observational Study of Shoulder Surgery', Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, 83, 2001.
'Evaluating Health Care Outcomes', in D Pencheon, C Guest, D Melzer and J Muir Gray (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Public Health Practice. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.

Duncan Gallie (Official Fellow) continued to work with Serge Paugam and Sheila Jacobs on the social consequences of unemployment in the countries of the European Union. In particular, they have been using the longitudinal data of the European Community Household Panel to examine the extent to which unemployment leads to financial poverty and social isolation under different welfare regimes.

He completed with Dobrinka Kostova and Pavel Kuchar a comparison of the situation of the unemployed in Britain, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This showed that, in conditions of a relatively weak welfare state, there was no evidence that community solidarities developed which could offset the economic and psychological severity of the effects of unemployment. In Bulgaria, in particular, unemployment led to exceptionally severe patterns of multiple deprivation.

He is co-ordinating for the EU (DG Research) a cluster of research projects on unemployment, welfare and work with a view to assessing the mutual implications of their results and drawing the practical lessons about the organization of comparative research involving different European research teams. One aspect of this work was the creation of a website (UWWCLUS), designed by Anton Verstraete, which provides information about the different projects and facilitates access to working papers.

He began work, with Francis Green and Alan Felstead, on a new survey to examine trends in skill in Britain (the Skills Survey). This was funded by the former Department for Education and Employment and is a component of the broader SKOPE research programme on skills in Britain. The survey involves a representative national sample of over 4,000 individuals and is designed to provide data that can be compared with surveys carried out in the mid-1980s and in the early and mid-1990s. The fieldwork was carried out by the National Centre for Social Research between February and June 2001.

He organized with Tessa Jowell and Tony Atkinson a seminar in College on 'Employability and the Quality of Working Life' that brought together a wide range of specialists from both inside and outside Oxford. He was a member of the Advisory Board of the British Household Panel Study. He served as a member of the Advisory Committee of the ESRC's Future of Work Initiative.

Publications
(with S Paugam) 'La régulation sociale du chômage', in M Oberti and H Mendras (eds.), Le sociologue et son terrain: trentes recherches exemplaires. Paris: Armand Colin, 2000.
(with D Kostova and P Kuchar) 'Social Consequences of Unemployment: an East-West Comparison', Journal of European Social Policy, 11, 2001.

Frank Gerhard (Research Officer) started working on the ESRC project 'Econometrics of trade-by-trade dynamics' (by Neil Shephard). He worked on dynamic models for limited dependent variables. A first paper established properties of the univariate process and a second paper concentrated on suitable specifications and estimation techniques for multivariate models. A direct application is the analysis of the joint process of size and sign of price changes along with the volume of individual transactions (with Winfried Pohlmeier).

The proposed dynamic is not only of interest for the analysis of price changes from one transaction to the next, but also for the analysis of macroeconomic time series like administered interest rates or states of the economy. Another application includes the analysis of time series of durations (with Nikolaus Hautsch) particularly with respect to the analysis of price durations (again with Nikolaus Hautsch).

He presented papers at the CoFE conference on Intertemporal Finance (Konstanz), the TU Munich, the North American Summer meeting and the European meeting of the Econometric Society (Washington, DC and Lausanne).

John Goldthorpe (Official Fellow) continued to work in the general field of social stratification. With various collaborators, he carried out research into social mobility, with special reference to the changing role of education, and into the relationship between social class and earnings stability and prospects. He also maintained an interest in developments in the theory of social action.

While on sabbatical leave in the Hilary and Trinity terms, he travelled frequently to Germany and Scandinavia giving seminars and teaching short courses usually related to issues raised in his recent book, On Sociology.

In February he helped organize and participated in a Cabinet Office seminar on social mobility; in March he gave the Maxwell Cummings lecture at the University of McGill, Montreal, on 'Mobility, Education and Meritocracy'; and in April he gave a lecture at the Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung on 'Globalization and Social Class' in conjunction with the opening there of the meeting of the ISA Research Committee on Social Stratification and Mobility that celebrated the 30th anniversary of its reconstitution.

He became a founder member of the European Academy for Sociology and was elected a Foreign Member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Publications
'Den nuvarande krisen inom sociologin: finns det en väg bortom falsk pluralism?', Sociologisk Forskning, 3-4, 2000.
'Globalization and Social Class', Mannheimer Vorträger, 9, Universität Mannheim und Lorenz von Stein-Gesellschaft, 2001.
(with R Breen) 'Class, Mobility and Merit', European Sociological Review, 17, 2001.

Bronwyn H Hall (Professorial Fellow). During the past year, the majority of Hall's research has focused on issues in patent policy and the use of patents as indicators of technological innovation. A major data project undertaken jointly with Adam Jaffe of Brandeis University and Manuel Trajtenberg of Tel Aviv University was completed this year. One of the outputs of this project was the creation of large databases containing information on all US patents granted during the past 35 years together with their citations, which have now been placed on the web for use by researchers everywhere. These data have already been used to improve methods of valuing intangible innovation assets at the firm level and to analyse the reasons for the rapid increase in semiconductor patenting during the recent past.

On this latter topic, Hall and Ziedonis (2001) find that the rise can be traced to a series of events related to the strengthening of patent protection in the United States during the 1980s, which has caused semiconductor manufacturing firms to amass hundreds and thousands of patents for cross-licensing and cross-litigation purposes. These patents are a defence against the possibility that they will be shut down by a preliminary injunction when they are sued by another patent holder. Both interview and empirical econometric evidence support this argument.

An increasingly important topic in the knowledge-based economy is the administration and enforcement of intellectual property rights, especially patents. With Dietmar Harhoff of Ludwig-Maxmiliens University Munich and David Mowery of the University of California at Berkeley, Hall has embarked on a comparative study of the operations of the US Patent Office and the European Patent Office by examining the experiences of patents on the same innovation taken out in the two different jurisdictions. Of particular interest in this study is the European opposition system, which may provide a lower cost model than litigation for determining the validity of a patent.

The results of Hall's research with Jacques Mairesse and Benoît Mulkay on R&D and investment in the US and France were published in both French and English during the year. Using a dynamic specification of a simple error-corrected investment model, this research compares the behaviour of large French firms to large United States firms and physical investment to R&D investment, finding no significant differences between the two countries in the long run effects of demand (output) on investment. However, cash flow or profits appear to have a much larger impact on both R&D and investment in the US than in France, suggesting either that US firms are more responsive to profitability signals, or that they are more subject to liquidity constraints.

Presentations of this work have been made at conferences in Seattle, Washington (World Congress of the Econometric Society), Paris (International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation), Washington, DC (National Academies of Science and Engineering and the Tax Policy Council), New Orleans (American Economic Association annual meeting), Brussels (European Commission), Stockholm, Munich (German Classification Society annual meeting), and Cambridge, Massachusetts (National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute), as well as seminars at the University of York, Oxford University, and the Universidade Técnica de Lisboa. In June 2001 Hall gave a week of lectures at the Scuola Sant'Anna Superiore in Pisa as Omnitel Visiting Professor of Economics.

Publications
(with B Mulkay and J Mairesse) 'Investment and R&D in France and in the United States', in Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), Investing Today for the World of Tomorrow. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2000.
(with J Mairesse and B Mulkay) 'Investissement des entreprises et contraintes financières en France et aux États-Unis', Économie et Statistique, 341-2, 2001.
(with R Ham Ziedonis) 'The Determinants of Patenting in the US Semiconductor Industry, 1980-1994', Rand Journal of Economics, 32, 2001.
(with P A David) 'Heart of Darkness: Public-Private Interactions Inside the R&D Black Box', Research Policy, 29, 2000.
(with A N Link and J T Scott) 'Barriers Inhibiting Industry from Partnering with Universities', Journal of Technology Transfer, 26, 2001.
'Investment and Taxation in Germany - Evidence from Firm-Level Panel Data by Harhoff and Ramb: Discussion', in H Herrman and R Strauch (eds.), Investing Today for the World of Tomorrow. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2000.

A H Halsey (Emeritus Fellow) continued to work mainly on his forthcoming history of British Sociology from the time of L T Hobhouse who, after Oxford and the Manchester Guardian, took up the first chair in the subject which was founded by the Scottish philanthropist, Martin White, at the London School of Economics and Political Science in 1907. The British Academy gave him a small grant (£5,000) towards secretarial and other expenses for the year 1999-2000. The Nuffield Foundation awarded £2,500 to March 2001 and the Leverhulme Trust gave £67,000 to September 2003. From this a Research Officer was appointed in June 2001 (Claire Donovan).

He began, inadvertently, by bringing up to date some of his old DNB entries (for Morris, Ginsberg, Richard Titmuss and Barbara Wootton) for the New Dictionary of National Biography and then added essays on T H Marshall, W J H Sprott, Charles Madge, Edward Shils, Willi Guttsman and Campbell Stewart. These essays will form part of a chapter on past leadership in sociology.

In the first part of the year he planned the study, devised and piloted a 'life-history' questionnaire to all those who held British chairs of sociology (broadly and narrowly defined), planned a content analysis of the main sociological journals since 1950, and read or re-read many relevant sources. The survey of sociology professors in Britain was completed in June 2001. There were 260 of them. Analysis is now underway. The content analysis of sociology journals is also underway with industrious help from Claire Donovan.

Publications
With N G McCrum, 'Access to Oxford', Oxford Magazine, 190, 2001.
'Review of J Soares's "The Decline of Privilege: The Modernization of Oxford University 1999"', in English Historical Review, 115, 2000.
'A Hundred Years of Social Change' and 'The Moderniser and the Don', in A M Herzberg and L Krupka (eds.), Statistics, Science and Public Policy. Kingston, Ontario: Queen's University, 2001.

Anthony Heath (Professorial Fellow) has had his time for research severely curtailed since taking on the headship of the Department of Sociology. However he has attempted to continue his work with colleagues in CREST on various aspects of political behaviour, in particular collaborating with Bob Andersen on the social bases of political attitudes and political behaviour, on the role of local social context in voting behaviour, and on the social bases of national identity and nationalist sentiments in England, Wales and Scotland. He has also been working with Bob Andersen and Richard Sinnott (UCD) on the question of whether lack of political knowledge leads voters to make 'incorrect' choices.

In addition he has continued to work on ethnic minority disadvantage in Britain, comparing the experiences in the labour market of first and second generation members of the minorities. The research is suggesting that the second generation, born and educated in Britain, have been catching up with British-born whites in their occupational attainments, providing they are lucky enough to have paid work. However, they continue to suffer substantial 'ethnic penalties' in the search for paid work and continue to have much higher unemployment rates than whites. Anthony Heath has been preparing a report on the explanation of ethnic minority disadvantage for the Cabinet Office.

Publications
(with R M Jowell and J K Curtice) The Rise of New Labour: Party Politics and Voter Choices. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with N D De Graaf and A Need) 'Declining Cleavages and Political Choices: the Interplay of Social and Political Factors in the Netherlands', Electoral Studies 20, 2000.
(with J Curtice) 'Is the English Lion about to Roar? National Identity after Devolution', in R Jowell et al (eds.), British Social Attitudes: The 17th Report. London: Sage, 2000.
(with K E Kearley and G K Freeman) 'An Exploration of the Value of the Personal Doctor-Patient Relationship in General Practice', British Journal of General Practice 51, 2001.

David Hendry (Professorial Fellow) focused his research on two ESRC financed projects, Modelling Nonstationarity in Economic Time Series (with J A Doornik, J N J Muellbauer, B Nielsen, and L Nunziato), and Modelling, Forecasting and Policy in the Evolving Macro-economy, with A Banerjee, M P Clements, H-M Krolzig, and G E Mizon.

Following the success in explaining the empirical evidence by a new general framework for economic forecasting - allowing for mis-specified models facing structural breaks in the economy - its implications for modelling methodology were analysed. The appearance that simple models produced better forecasts was a coincidence due to their being more robust to breaks; and such robustness could be implemented in part in econometric systems. 'Sensible' economic agents should form expectations by adopting the devices that win forecasting competitions, not seek to formulate so-called 'rational' expectations based on the conditional expectation of the future data, since the latter were not robust to breaks. The regularity of forecast failure historically was documented by modelling annual UK industrial output from 1750 onwards.

Model selection was shown not to explain forecast failure; and forecasting success or failure should not influence the selection of policy models. Serious drawbacks were demonstrated in conventional 'impulse-response' analyses when breaks occurred. Moreover, selection was implicitly involved in testing economic theories using time-series data, and could distort inferences. An automatic procedure for selecting econometric models was calibrated on a large number of Monte Carlo simulation studies to ensure that the success in choosing the data generation process was close to the upper bound across a wide range of states of nature. The probabilities of selecting the relevant variables were almost as high as those when commencing from the correct model, whereas the probabilities of omitting the irrelevant were determined by the significance level chosen. Thus, while new approaches to testing theories, forecasting, and policy analysis were needed, the automatic model selection procedure pointed to a fruitful alternative.

He delivered papers at the following conferences: 'Workshop on Inflation', Bank of England; 'ESRC Macro-modelling Workshop', Warwick; 'Macro-modelling Bureau Conference', Warwick; 'Inflation Conference', European Central Bank, Frankfurt; 'Macro-econometrics Conference', Florence; Royal Economic Society Conference, Durham. He also delivered seminars at the European Central Bank, Frankfurt; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim; and Oxford Universitiy.

He was elected a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, and received an Honorary Dr.Oec.h.c. from the University of St Gallen, and an Honorary Dr.Phil. from the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He served on the Executive Committee of the Royal Economic Society.

Publications
(with H-M Krolzig) Automatic Econometric Model Selection using PcGets. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
(with J A Doornik) Interactive Monte Carlo Experimentation in Econometrics using PcNaive. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
(with J A Doornik) Econometric Modelling using PcGive 10: Volumes I, II and III. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001 .
(with J A Doornik) GiveWin 2: An Interface to Empirical Modelling. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
(edited with M H Pesaran) 'Studies in Empirical Macro-econometrics', Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 2001.
(with K Juselius) 'Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II', Energy Journal, 22, 2001.
(with A Beyer and J A Doornik) 'Constructing Historical Euro-zone Data', Economic Journal, 111, 2001.
'Achievements and Challenges in Econometric Methodology', Journal of Econometrics, 100th Volume, 2001.
'Modelling UK Inflation, 1875-1991', Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 2001.
(with M H Pesaran) 'Editors' Introduction', Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 2001.
(with H-M Krolzig) 'Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 2001.
(with G E Mizon) 'Reformulating Empirical Macro-econometric Modelling', Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16, 2001.
(with M P Clements) 'Forecasting with Difference-stationary and Trend-stationary Models', Econometrics Journal, 4, 2001.
(with M P Clements) 'An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors', National Institute Economic Review, 177, 2001.
(with A Beyer and J A Doornik) 'Re-constructing Aggregate Euro-Zone Data', Journal of Common Market Studies, 38, 2000.
'Does Money Determine UK Inflation over the Long Run?' in R Backhouse, and A Salanti (eds.), Macroeconomics and the Real World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Gwilym Hughes (Supernumerary Fellow and Bursar) continued as a Board member of Guided Transit Express for Oxfordshire Ltd, which is developing plans for dedicated bus routes for incorporation into Oxford's next five year local transport plan. Several board meetings have been held at Nuffield.

Andrew Hurrell (Faculty Fellow) works on the international relations of the Americas and on international relations theory. His broader work on international relations and international institutions included organizing a seminar series on Order and Justice in International Relations together with John Gaddis and Rosemary Foot, the papers of which will be published by OUP in early 2002; participation in a workshop on Mainstreaming Human Rights in Economic Institutions in Florence in February; and participation in a conference on The Ethics of Security in Vancouver in April, in which he gave a paper on environmental security. His work on the Americas involved: participation in an on-going project on Political Regimes and Foreign Policy in Historical Perspective, the first meeting of which was held in Paris in January and which will lead to a major conference in Brasilia in 2003; teaching the graduate course on The International Relations of Latin America in Hilary; and co-organizing a workshop in May on The International Dimensions of the Colombian Conflict. He was also heavily involved in the departmental and financial restructuring of the University, serving as head of department for Area and Development Studies from April to August.

Publications
'Global Inequality and International Institutions', Metaphilosophy, 32, 2001.
'Brazil and the Global Economy: Economic and Foreign Policy Ideologies', in Bart de Prins et al, Brasil. Cultures and Economies of Four Continents. Leuven: Acco, 2001.
'Keeping History, Law and Political Philosophy Firmly within the English School', Review of International Studies, 27, 2001.
'The Politics of Regional Integration in Mercosur', in V Bulmer-Thomas ed.), Regional Integration in Latin America: The Political Economy of Open Regionalism. London: Institute for Latin American Studies, 2001.

Sheila Jacobs (Research Officer) has continued to work with Duncan Gallie on an EU research project examining further aspects of unemployment, social exclusion and poverty in a range of European countries from 1994 to 1996. She has also continued her analysis of women's careers using British Household Panel Survey data.

Ian Jewitt (Official Fellow) took up his appointment at Nuffield in April 2001. He continued researching the nature and implications of information, risk, noise, etc., in a variety economic settings. His latest investigation into information order has uncovered connections with his earliest work on risk, which was first presented (at the invitation of Terence Gorman) to a seminar in Nuffield 20 years ago. Simply stated, it should not be surprising that adding more noise (in the sense of more risk) to an observation should lead to a reduction in its information content. Blackwell made this statement precise back in the 1950s but restricting the class of decision problems in a variety of natural ways allows for a less stringent, and in some contexts more useful, information order.

Some of these ideas have already been applied to classical economic problems. For example: the moral hazard principal agent problem (how to motivate workers efficiently when their measured outputs imperfectly reflect their inputs) and the career concern model (where workers are motivated by a desire to convince future employers of their worth). Applying them to other contexts, such as auctions, is a topic of ongoing research, probably for the next 20 years.

Further research into career concerns, but on a different tack, was also commenced during the year. In particular, it is of interest to model situations in which there are multiple labour markets. For instance, when the worker must choose whether to remain in the public sector (characterized by few direct monetary incentives) or to enter the private sector in which there are more pronounced monetary incentives. This study is part of a wider ongoing research agenda into the nature and consequences of incentives in public sector organizations.

Nevil Johnson (Emeritus Fellow) has continued, subject to many interruptions, to work on a book about constitutional change in Britain. The approach is both historical and analytical and the study is intended to encompass an assessment of the impact of recent constitutional changes on traditional accounts of British constitutional practice. In February 2001 he agreed to join an independent official commission set up by the Minister of the Interior of North Rhine Westphalia, the largest of the German Länder, to inquire into and report on the future development of the public service there. This involves regular meetings and will call for a contribution with an Anglo-German comparative dimension.

Publications
'Manager statt Amtsverwalter?', Die Öffentliche Verwaltung (DÖV), 8 April 2001.
'Review of Governing with Judges: Constitutional Politics in Europe, by Alec Stone Sweet, Oxford University Press 2000', West European Politics, 24, 2001.
'Can Self-government Survive? Britain and the European Union', Occasional Paper, Centre for Policy Studies, October 2000.
'Taking Stock of Constitutional Reform', Government and Opposition, 36, 2001.

Yuen Foong Khong (Faculty Fellow) returned to Oxford after spending two years as Director and Professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore. Having just completed a jointly authored book on war during power transitions, he is extending his collaboration with others in two new projects. The first is a jointly authored volume on Human Security with Neil MacFarlane of St. Anne's College, Oxford. Part of a series on the Intellectual History of the United Nations, the volume will take a critical perspective on the evolution of the notion of human security, including the difficulties associated with implementing the concept in the 1990s. With David Malone of the International Peace Academy, he organized a workshop in New York in May analysing how unilateral the United States has been across a wide variety of issues, including human rights, missile defence, the environment, international law, and United Nations policy. The revised papers will be published in a volume that he and Malone will co-edit. On his own, he is also embarking on a study of America's identity and foreign policy. Scholars recommending very different foreign policies - from isolationism to multilateral engagement - for the United States in the 21st century have seen fit to argue for their preferred policies as being true to 'America's identity'; the project aims to discover which of these arguments have firm foundations and to chart the changing nature of American identity over time. In the course of the year, he also joined the editorial boards of the European Journal of International Relations and the Journal of the International Relations of the Asia Pacific.

Publication
(with C Kupchan, E Adler, and J M Coicaud), Peaceful Transitions: Benignness, Order, and Legitimacy in the International System. Washington, DC: United Nations University Press, 2001.

Paul Klemperer (Professorial Fellow) continued to write on auction theory and industrial organization - several recent papers are at www.paulklemperer.org.
An important theme of his work has been developing connections between auction theory and 'standard' economic theory, showing how situations that do not at first look like auctions can be recast to use auction-theoretic techniques, and how auction-theoretic tools and intuitions can provide useful arguments and insights into a broad range of mainstream economic settings. Another theme has been evaluating what are the most important issues in practical auction design. He has also been writing about competition in markets in which the compatibility of firms' products is important.

He advised government agencies on competition policy (the US Federal Trade Commission, the EU Competition Directorate, and the UK Office of Fair Trading) and on auction design (HM Treasury, and the UK DETR and National Audit Office). He was appointed a Member of the UK Competition Commission.

He gave public lectures in Madrid, Stockholm, and Delhi; lectured to the Heads of EU Competition Authorities, HM Treasury, the European Commission, the Indian NCAER and TRAI, and the Brazilian FGV; gave invited lectures to the Royal Economics Society (Durham), the European Economics Association (Lausanne), the ISPE (Pavia), Regulatory Policy Institute (Oxford), and the Latin American meetings of the Econometric Society (Buenos Aires); gave talks to conferences and faculty seminars in Berlin, Delhi, London, Cambridge, Leicester, Dublin, and Rio de Janeiro, and lectured on the Econometric Society Winter School (Calcutta) and the FSME (Naples).

He is a Fellow of the British Academy and a Fellow of the Econometric Society, is on the Council of the Econometric Society, and the Council and the Executive Committee of the Royal Economics Society. He served on six editorial boards, and ran the college's internal and external industrial organization and economic theory seminars.

Hans-Martin Krolzig (Research Fellow) continued to work on the ESRC project 'Modelling, Forecasting and Policy in the Evolving Macro-economy' (with D F Hendry, A Banerjee, M P Clements and G E Mizon) pursuing his research on econometric regime-switching models. He worked (with M P Clements, Warwick) on the characterization of business cycle asymmetries in Markov-switching autoregressions, the development of parametric tests and their application to the evaluation of the effects of oil price shocks on the asymmetry of the US business cycle. He worked on a Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market (with M Marcellino, Bocconi, and G E Mizon, Southampton) and proposed Markov-switching procedures for dating the Euro-zone business cycle. Papers on multi-regime Markov-switching models for the measurement of business cycles under the presence of structural change, and for a disaggregated approach to the measurement the UK industrial cycle (with M Sensier, Manchester) were published.

In addition, he worked with D F Hendry on the computer automation of general-to-specific model reduction procedures allowing the automatic econometric selection of linear, dynamic single-equation models. The application of the approach to vector autoregressive models is under study.

He presented papers at the EC2 Conference in Dublin, a DIW Workshop on the European Business Cycle in Berlin, an NASEF Workshop in Hydra, the EUI/SSF Conference on Bridging Econometrics and Economics in Florence, the International Forecasting Symposium in Atlanta, the SCE Conference at Yale, the ESEM01 and EEA Meeting in Lausanne, the IFAC/SME Symposium in Klagenfurt, and the VfS Annual Meeting in Magdeburg. He presented an invited lecture to the METU Conference in Ankara and gave a seminar jointly organized by the ECB, the Bundesbank and the CFS in Frankfurt.

Publications
(with M Sensier) 'A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing', Manchester School, 68, 2000.
(with D F Hendry) Automatic Econometric Model Selection with PcGets. London: Timberlake Consultants Press, 2001.
(with D F Hendry) 'Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 25, 2001.
'Business Cycle Measurement in the Presence of Structural Change: International Evidence', International Journal of Forecasting, 17, 2001.
'General-to-Specific Reductions of Vector Autoregressive Processes', in R Friedmann, L Knüppel and H Lütkepohl (eds.), Econometric Studies - A Festschrift in Honour of Joachim Frohn. Münster: LIT Verlag, 2001.

Lord McCarthy (Emeritus Fellow) continued to serve as a member of the Arbitration Panel of the Advisory Conciliation and Arbitration Service and as a member of the Civil Service Arbitration Tribunal.

He addressed the 50th Anniversary Conference of the British Universities' Industrial Relations Association on the theme of 'Reflections on 50 years of Industrial Relations Research'.
He is developing the subject matter of this address into an article and/or longer study under the heading of 'The Five Ages of Industrial Relations Research or In the Beginning were Beatrice and Sidney'.

He also submitted a memorandum to the DTI commenting on their consultation documents, 'Routes to Resolution' and the 'Draft Directive on Consultation and Information'.

Kenneth Macdonald (Faculty Fellow) has been fretting at issues in the logic of adventitious goods, and (related but separate) at the interconnections between evaluation and measurement of social mobility. He has also continued work on the organisation of information, and in more quantitative vein, with Dr Frazer, New College, on the sceptical reanalysis of date on 'political knowledge'.

Publication
'Social Epidemiology. A Way?', International Journal of Epidemiology, 30, 2001.

Iain McLean (Official Fellow) published two books and delivered a third; continued his policy-oriented research on UK devolution and on electoral systems; and restarted an earlier line of research on 18th-century thought and institutional design, which he planned to advance while on leave at Yale in autumn 2001.

Aberfan: Government and Disaster (with Martin Johnes) was published in October. Rational Choice in British Politics: Rhetoric and Manipulation from Peel to Blair was published in spring 2001. So far, it has been set as a course text on at least two American campuses but no British ones as far as is known. Both books have generated a number of radio and TV appearances. Instituting Trade: Political Institutions and Trade in the Long 19th Century, with three co-authors, was submitted during the year and will be published in autumn 2001. A dust-jacket blurb from an American political economist describes the authors as 'four of the most promising young scholars . . .'.

Policy work was again mostly about UK constitutional matters, especially devolution, and about disaster prevention and relief. Media interest in previously reported work on both UK devolution and Aberfan has remained high. Devolution matters were discussed with policy advisers in government and elsewhere and some more work published. A research project on 'Attitudes to the Union since 1707' will start in October 2001.

An invitation to present a paper to celebrate the 250th birthday of James Madison has led to a revival of research into Madison, Thomas Jefferson, and the origins of social choice. A chapter on Madison and either a paper or a book on Jefferson in Paris are in preparation. A review article on the heresthetic ('the art and science of political manipulation') of W H Riker has been accepted for publication in the British Journal of Political Science.

Other work commissioned included the biography of Donald Dewar (1937-2000) for the New Dictionary of National Biography and a second edition of the Concise Oxford Dictionary of Politics, for which work will start in earnest next year.

He again convened a termly seminar in College, originally titled 'Political Economy', co-organized by S Wood, Magdalen, and subsequently 'Nuffield Political Science Seminar', co-organizer G Evans. He gave invited conference talks at the University of California, Los Angeles (on medieval social choice) and the University of California, San Diego and Washington University, St Louis (on Madison and Riker). He convened panels, and gave papers, at the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, and the Public Choice Society, San Antonio, Texas. With Martin Johnes, he gave keynote presentations on Aberfan to the All-Wales Emergency Planning Conference, Gregynog, Powys and a conference on disasters at Salford University.

Publications
Rational Choice in British Politics: An Analysis of Rhetoric and Manipulation from Peel to Blair. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with M Johnes) Aberfan: Government and Disasters. Cardiff: Welsh Academic Press, 2000.
(with C Bustani) 'On Providence, Potatoes, and Peel', Political Studies, 49, 2001.
(with M Johnes) 'Echoes of Injustice', History Today, December, 2000.
(with M Johnes) '"Regulation Run Mad": The Board of Trade and the Loss of the Titanic', Public Administration, 78, 2000.
'The National Question', in A Seldon (ed.), The Blair Effect: The First Blair Government, 1997-2001. Boston and London: Little Brown, 2001.

Freddie Madden (Official Fellow) finally published in 2001 the eighth volume of his constitutional documents. This series covers the imperial experience of gouvernaunce from 12th century Ireland to the handing over of Hong Kong in 1997.

Publication
The End of Empire: Dependencies since 1948. Westport, Connecticut and London: Greenwood Press, 2000.

Gordon Marshall (Official Fellow) is on leave of absence while he holds the post of Chief Executive of the Economic and Social Research Council.

David R Mayhew (John M Olin Visiting Professor in American Government) completed a book-length critique of the scholarly genre devoted to American electoral realignments. In this volume, the half-century-old realignments genre is resolved into 15 distinct empirical claims, all of which are found to be wanting.

During the 2000-2001 academic year, Professor Mayhew delivered addresses entitled 'American Electoral Realignments: A Critique of the Genre' at Nuffield College and at the University of Essex; 'The 2000 Congressional Elections and Their Consequences' at the US Embassy in London; 'Congressional Opposition to the American Presidency' in an Oxford University inaugural address and at the Institute for US Studies in London; 'Congress and the Presidency: Conflict and Co-operation' at The American Center, Sciences-Po in Paris; 'Why Is the US Congress Strong?' at a conference on Brazilian politics at Oxford; and 'Divided Party Control under Bush II' at the University of Cologne. He took part in panels on American political institutions and on the 1950 American Political Science Association report on responsible parties at the annual APSA conference in September 2000, and at a conference on 'The Macro-politics of Congress' in Boulder, Colorado, in June 2001. During November and December 2000 he helped interpret the US presidential election to audiences at several Oxford colleges and through interviews on BBC Radio Glasgow. He served as a referee for Guggenheim fellowships in political science for 2001.

Publications
America's Congress: Actions in the Public Sphere, James Madison through Newt Gingrich. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2000.
'Electoral Realignments,' Annual Review of Political Science 3, 2000.
'Much Huffing and Puffing, Little Change', chapter in M Levin, M Landy and M Shapiro (eds.), Seeking the Center: Politics and Policymaking at the New Century. Washington: Georgetown University Press, 2001.
Preface to Chinese language edition of Congress: The Electoral Connection. Shanghai: Fudan University Press, 2001. '
Observations on Congress: The Electoral Connection a Quarter Century after Writing It,' Political Science, 2001.
'Review of John W. Malsberger, From Obstruction to Moderation: The Transformation of Senate Conservatism, 1938-1952. (Susquehanna UP, 2000)', American Historical Review, 2001.
American Electoral Realignments: A Critique of the Genre. New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002.
'The US Congress in 2001: Representation and Structure,' in B E Shafer (ed.), The State of American Politics: Where Are We in 2001?'. Lanham, Maryland: Rowman and Littlefield, 2002.
'Congressional Opposition to the American Presidency,' Oxford inaugural address, to be published by Oxford University Press.

Richard Mayou (Professorial Fellow) has continued his long-standing research interests into the psychological, psychiatric and social consequences of medical disorders.

One theme has been to describe the wide individual variations (psychologically and behaviourally) in response to major physical illness. This is illustrated by the paper, one of a continuing series, which describes aspects of substantial psychiatric complications of all types of road accident. Post-traumatic stress disorder, phobic anxiety about travel, and depression are all frequent and often persistent and disabling whatever the nature and severity of any physical injury. Management is unsatisfactory. Compensation proceedings are often prolonged and frustrating for victims and cost insurers (and policy holders) a billion pounds a year.

A second major theme has been the improved understanding and treatment of the very large proportion of symptoms presented to doctors for which there is no clear, adequate physical explanation. Research has largely focused on the examples of non-cardiac chest pain, benign palpitation and whiplash neck injury. Possible explanations have usually been viewed in terms of alternatives of physical or psychological explanation. The latter are often characterized in inappropriate and pejorative terms, for example hypochondriasis. Richard Mayou's research, together with that of Oxford colleagues, has indicated that causes of such symptoms usually result from an interaction of physiological, minor pathological and psychological factors. They are maintained by a number of secondary variables, including medical care that fails to provide an explanation or treatment. Current research is addressing specific issues in causation and course and also in evaluating psychological interventions.

In parallel, work is proceeding on a theoretical review of the classification and aetiology of so-called 'medically unexplained symptoms'. It is argued that, despite some unresolved controversies and a lack of high quality evidence, it is possible to understand such symptoms and that such understanding has implications both for better systems of classification and for the management in everyday primary care and in specialist care.

Publications
(with M G Gelder and P Cowen) Shorter Oxford Textbook of Psychiatry. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with K S Bryden, R C Peveler, A Stein, A Neil, and D B Dunger) 'The Clinical and Psychological Course of Diabetes from Adolescence to Young Adulthood: A Longitudinal Cohort Study', Diabetes Care, 2001.
(with B Bryant and A Ehlers) 'Prediction of Psychological Outcomes One Year after a Motor Vehicle Accident', American Journal of Psychiatry, 158, 2001.
(with A Ehlers, D C Sprigings and J Birkhead) 'Psychological and Perceptual Factors Associated with Arrhythmias and Benign Palpitations', Psychosomatic Medicine, 62, 2000.
(with J Black and B Bryant) 'Unconsciousness, Amnesia and Psychiatric Symptoms following Road Traffic Accident Injury', British Journal of Psychiatry, 177, 2000.
(with C Bass, G Hart, S Tyndel, and B Bryant) 'Can Clinical Assessment of Chest Pain be made more Therapeutic?' Quarterly Journal of Medicine, 93, 2000.
'Organic (Cognitive) Mental Disorders', in J G G Ledingham and D A Warrell (eds.), Concise Oxford Textbook of Medicine. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.
'Psychiatric Emergencies and Problems Arising in Accident and Emergency Departments' in J G G Ledingham and D A Warrell (eds.), Concise Oxford Textbook of Medicine. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.
'Somatoform Disorders' in F Henn, N Sartorius, H Helmchen and H Lauter (eds.), Contemporary Psychiatry Vol 3: Specific Psychiatric Disorders. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2000.
'Trauma', in R Peveler, E Feldman, and T Friedman (eds.), Liaison Psychiatry; Planning Services for Specialist Settings. London: Gaskell, 2000.
(with D Gill) 'Dementia', in M G Gelder, J J Lopez-Ibor, and N Andreasen (eds.), New Oxford Textbook of Psychiatry. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.
'Somatoform disorders and other causes of medically unexplained symptoms', in M G Gelder, J J Lopez-Ibor, and N Andreasen (eds.), New Oxford Textbook of Psychiatry. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Margaret Meyer (Official Fellow) continued research on the internal organization of firms and the economics of incentives, information, and contracts. With Alessandro Lizzeri (NYU) and Nicola Persico (Pennsylvania), she pursued a project entitled 'The Incentive and Sorting Effects of Interim Performance Evaluations'. In many organizations, important promotion decisions (e.g. to partnership) are preceded by several periods during which employees' performance is evaluated, and the organization faces a choice about how much feedback to provide to employees. The research examines the effects of providing feedback, both on employees' effort incentives and on the quality of the organization's promotion decisions. This work was presented in Bristol at a conference on 'Incentives in Complex Organizations' and in Oxford.

With Jeffrey Zwiebel (Stanford), she pursued a project entitled 'Learning and Self-Reinforcing Behavior in Organizations'. The work examines sequences of decisions, for example about the adoption of proposed projects or the promotion of junior employees. In many settings, these decisions will be linked - for example, today's decision may affect the quality of the information on which tomorrow's decision will be based. When such linkages exist, optimal decision-making will be forward-looking, but in addition, an organization's decisions can only be fully understood by looking at the history of past decisions. This work was presented at the European Summer Symposium in Economic Theory (ESSET) at Gerzensee.
With Christopher Avery (Harvard), she continued work on 'Designing Hiring and Evaluation Procedures when Evaluators are Biased'. This project concerns organizations where decisions are based on recommendations by informed, but potentially biased, evaluators. A central concern is to analyse to what extent biased evaluators are disciplined by the knowledge that decision makers will use their current evaluations to decide how much to rely on their advice in the future. This research was presented at the Université Libre de Bruxelles.

Finally, she pursued research on the measurement of multidimensional correlation, an issue with applications in welfare economics and information economics.
She completed her term as a member of the Council of the Royal Economic Society. She is a member of the organizing committee of ESSET.

David Miller (Official Fellow) has continued to work on issues arising from his long-standing interest in ideas of social justice. In particular he has been addressing the question whether multiculturalism should force us either to abandon or radically modify that idea. One paper explores the impact of culture on people's conceptions of justice, and argues that this impact is more superficial than is commonly assumed. Another paper explores how far our ideas of equal opportunity need to be altered to accommodate differential willingness on the part of cultural groups to take up opportunities that are formally open to them.

He has also continued research on national responsibility and international justice. A key question here is the conditions under which it is reasonable to hold nations collectively responsible either for the damage they inflict on outsiders or for self-inflicted damage - poor economic performance, for instance. In the light of this, what principles should govern the obligations owed by richer nations to poorer nations? The eventual aim of this research is to develop a theory of global justice that gives due weight to the consequences of national self-determination.

Publications
'Nationality in Divided Societies', in A Gagnon and J Tully (eds.), Multinational Democracies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
'Nationale Selbstbestimmung und globale Gerechtigkeit', in K Ballestrem (ed.), Internationale Gerechtigkeit. Opladen: Leske und Budrich, 2001.

John Muellbauer (Official Fellow). Work continued on the ESRC-supported project held jointly with David Hendry, 'Modelling Non-Stationarity in Economic Time Series'. The Department for International Development project with Janine Aron on 'Monetary Policy and Medium Term Growth in South Africa' came to successful conclusion, and DfID funded another two-year project 'Governance and Inflation Targeting in South Africa for Sustainable Growth'. This will involve further modelling of the inflation process in South Africa, an examination of the efficiency of possible monetary policy rules and improvements in institutional design.

Several draft papers with Janine Aron on South Africa were revised, among them a paper on monetary policy feedback rules, and our paper on consumption, with fairly radical implications, not widely perceived in the literature, on the effects of financial deregulation or liberalization on consumption and debt. We also modelled the demand for broad money in South Africa, finding interesting wealth and uncertainty effects.

John became college investment bursar for the non-property portfolio on September 1st 2000, as serious stock market declines and a long period of increasing instability and uncertainty began. Research with Luca Nunziata aimed to develop a model to forecast the US business cycle, eventually linking it with a panel data study of business cycles in OECD economies. We produced a CEPR discussion paper on forecasting US growth and an article in the Financial Times in May. The model forecasts the biggest growth reversal in the US since 1975, likely to have been borne out even without the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. Another article has examined the causal links from stock markets to economic growth. These research papers have helped to inform college investment strategies.

This year also saw the completion of the bulk of the work on a project for the Bank of England with Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo on consumer credit and mortgage markets in the UK. Major structural changes have taken place in these markets since the late 1970's, resulting in much higher loan to value and loan to income ratios becoming available for mortgage borrowers. Correspondingly, these have allowed the ratios of consumer credit and mortgage debt to household income to rise strongly. We analyse survey data for 1975-2000 on the distribution of loan-to-value and loan-to-income ratios to first time buyers, distinguishing age and region. These data are combined with aggregate time series data on secured and unsecured household debt to extract a common factor measuring financial liberalization in a single index, while controlling for a plethora of other economic influences on these variables. The results confirm a rise in this credit supply index in the 1980s, some contraction in the early 1990s, followed by a rise to a level still below that of the late 1980s. This suggests that lenders and borrowers have not entirely forgotten the consequences of the poor credit quality lending of the late 1980s, which was followed by an unprecedented mortgage repossessions crisis.

Research papers were presented at the Bank of England, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the South African Reserve Bank, the University of Witwatersrand, at Oxford, several Oxford Economic Forecasting conferences and at the European Meetings of the Econometric Society in Lausanne.

Publications
(with G Cameron) 'Earnings, Unemployment, and Housing in Great Britain', Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 2001.
'Equity Markets and the Economy', in Economic Outlook. Oxford: LBS/OEF, 2001.
(with J Aron) 'Estimating Monetary Policy Rules for South Africa', in N Loayza and K Schmidt-Hebbel (eds), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, Studies on Monetary Policy and International Finance. Santiago, Chile: Bank of Chile Book Series, 2001.

Karma Nabulsi (Prize Research Fellow) was extremely grateful to the Warden and Fellows of the College for 10 months leave in order to take up a Jean Monnet Fellowship in the Department of History and Civilization at the European University Institute. The year was spent mainly writing a short book on the ideological and historical origins of the international society Young Europe, which was founded in 1834, and on their programme for a European Union. Some time was also spent researching archives in Italy, presenting papers at Malmö, at Paris, and at Florence, and as project leader of a European-wide four-year British Academy sponsored Network, which was launched at the IEP of Grenoble, entitled: Republicans without Republics: National and International Networks in the Construction of State in 19th Century Europe. This network will bring together scholars from all over Europe to look at the cross-pollination of ideas, as well as more practical associations and methods, of political groups whose aims were to construct democratic republics in 19th century Europe.

Publications
(with B Stråth) 'Europe - a View from Within and from the Outside', in Hans-Åke Persson (ed.), Ett utvidgat EU. Lund: Malmö University Press/Studentlitteratur, 2001.
'Historical Context of the Palestinian Refugees', 'General Remarks and Analysis', 'The Establishment and Procedures of the Commission of Enquiry', and 'Concept Paper' in Report by the UK Parliamentary Commission of Enquiry into Palestinian Refugees. London: Joint Parliamentary Middle East Councils, 2001.
(with B Gilchrist) 'Main Findings of the Refugees' Testimony', in Report by the UK Parliamentary Commission of Enquiry into Palestinian Refugees. London: Joint Parliamentary Middle East Councils, 2001.

Bent Nielsen (Research Fellow) continued working on the ESRC project 'Modelling non-stationarity in economic time series' (with D F Hendry, J N J Muellbauer, J A Doornik, G Cameron and L Nunziata). He continued to work on statistical models for explosively growing processes. Two papers were completed. One describes how to determine how many lags should be included in the statistical model. Another gives a series of mathematical results which are useful for the development of the statistical analysis. The model is potentially a helpful tool for empirical analysis of hyper inflationary economies. He is using this statistical model in a project with Z Mladenovic analysing the Yugoslavian hyperinflation in the early 1990s. At Easter he organized (with D F Hendry and N Shephard) the first of a new series of Royal Economic Society Easter Schools in Econometrics.
He presented papers at Nuffield College, at the Economics Departments in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Varese, and at the conference on `Macroeconomic Transmission mechanisms' in Firenze.

Publications
(with S Johansen and R Mosconi) 'Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend', Econometrics Journal, 3, 2000.
(with P. Paruolo) 'Correction: The Role of the Drift in I(2) Systems', Journal of the Italian Statistical Society, 6, 2000.
'The Asymptotic Distribution of Unit Root Tests of Unstable Autoregressive Processes, Econometrica, 69, 2001.

Volker Nocke (Post-doctoral Research Fellow) continued to work on industry dynamics and firm turnover (jointly with Marcus Asplund, now of the London Business School) and on behavioural industrial organization (jointly with Martin Peitz of the University of Frankfurt). Moreover, he started a new research project entitled 'A Gap for Me: Entrepreneurs and Entry' (jointly with himself). A central concern is to investigate the relationship between the size of a market and the quality of its entrepreneurs when a population of heterogeneous entrepreneurs can decide which market to enter. A striking sorting result is obtained: the most capable entrepreneurs all enter the largest market, less capable entrepreneurs enter the next largest market, and so on. However, if firms can export from one market to the other, and transport costs (or tariffs) are sufficiently small, then all entrepreneurs enter the largest market (or none at all).

Nuffield's Prize Research Fellowships are for a limited time only, alas, and so he decided to go on the academic job market. This turned out to be a very time-and-energy-consuming and nerve-wrecking process (which he is not keen to repeat). In the end, he decided to accept a very attractive Assistant Professorship at the University of Pennsylvania (while being on unpaid leave from Nuffield).

Despite all this, he continued to organize the Oxford Industrial Economics Workshop and serve as referee for many academic journals (such as the Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Review, Rand Journal of Economics, and International Economic Review, amongst others). He gave research seminars at the Universities of Southampton, Alicante, Warwick, Chicago, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Manchester, and Tilburg, as well as at New York University, LSE, California Institute of Technology, WZB (Berlin), and EUI (Florence). He presented papers at the ASSET Meeting in Lisbon, the CEPR/WZB conference on antitrust (Berlin), the CEPR workshop on industry dynamics (London), and the North American Summer Meeting (NASM) of the Econometric Society (Maryland).

Luca Nunziata (Research Officer) started to work on the ESRC project 'Modelling Non-stationarity in Economic Time-Series' with John Muellbauer, David Hendry, and Jurgen Doornik. He completed a paper with John Muellbauer deriving a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, examining collectively variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap. The paper was presented at the Nuffield College Econometric Seminar and at the 56th European Meeting of the Econometric Society.

He also completed a paper, jointly with Stefano Staffolani, on the role played by short-term contracts regulation in shaping employment population levels patterns in Europe, presented at the 2001 AIEL conference. Another completed paper was the one jointly written with Steve Nickell, Wolfgang Ochel and Glenda Quintini that presents an empirical analysis of unemployment patterns in the OECD countries from the 1960s to the 1990s, including a detailed study of shifts in the Beveridge Curves and real wages. The paper was invited to a conference on labour market institutions organized by the Bank of Portugal, and to various seminars. He also wrote a paper on the determination of labour costs in OECD countries, where he focuses on some of the econometric aspects of analysing the effects of labour market institutions on wages, presented at the European Association of Labour Economists conference.

Finally, he started to analyse unemployment regional differences and criminality in Italy, with Silvia Palano, and he produced a macroeconomic dataset on labour market institutions in OECD countries with Steve Nickell.

Adrian Pagan (Professorial Fellow) continued to work on cycles with a number of researchers and students, principally Don Harding of the Melbourne Institute, University of Melbourne. This work consisted of discussing methods for identifying expansion and recession phases of the business cycle and how one decides on whether cycles in different sectors or countries are synchronized. A by-product of this research was the development of some simple ways of testing for the goodness of fit of Markov-switching models. Often such models are used in cycle research since they maintain that the economy can be characterized as being in a number of states that depend upon either the growth rate of activity or its volatility. It was found that many of these models do not fit the data very well, often failing to mimic its variance. The latter work was done with Bob Breunig of the Department of Statistics, Australian National University. During the year he finished his term of appointment as a member of the Reserve Bank of Australia Board; this board is the Australian equivalent of the Monetary Policy Committee in the UK. An invited lecture on 'Analysing Cycles' was given to the New Economics School Annual Conference in Moscow. Seminars were presented in the UK at the Universities of Southampton and York and the Bank of England. Outside the UK presentations were made at Monash University, the University of Technology in Sydney, the University of Wollongong and the Central European University in Budapest. He attended a range of conferences including the Summer Institute of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Publications
(with V Martin) 'Simulation-Based Estimation of Some Factor Models in Econometrics', in R Mariano, T Schuermann and M J Weeks (eds.), Simulation-Based Inference in Econometrics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
'The Optimal Control Articles' and 'The Walras-Bowley Paper', in R Leeson (ed.), A W H Phillips: Collected Works in Contemporary Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
(with M R Veall) 'Data Mining and the Econometrics Industry: Comments on the papers of Mayer and of Hoover and Perez', Journal of Economic Methodology, 7, 2000.
(with M Dungey and V L Martin) 'A Multivariate Latent Factor Decomposition of International Bond Yield Spreads', Journal of Applied Econometrics. 15, 2000.
(with M Dungey) 'A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy' Economic Record, 76, 2000.
(with D Harding) 'Knowing the Cycle', in R Backhouse and A Salanti, Macroeconomics and the Real World. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Clive Payne (Faculty Fellow) had no time for research in a busy year carrying out his duties as Senior Tutor in the College and as Director of the Social Studies Computing and Research Support Unit. Nethertheless he did have a little time for some other academic activities. These included: doing his ninth and last UK General Election-night forecast for the BBC (with David Firth and Neil Shephard); giving a paper on tracking changes in attitudes to the environment in Europe at the Research Centre for Contemporary China, Peking University; giving a talk on election forecasting to the Royal Statistical Society local group in Sheffield, and running a course on event history analysis at the University of Surrey. He continued his stint as Joint Editor of the Statistics in Society journal of the Royal Statistical Society.

Publications
(with R Karandikar and Y Yadav) 'Predicting the 1998 Indian Parliamentary Election', Electoral Studies, 20, 2001.
(with other members of the Oxford Index Team) Measuring Multiple Deprivation at the Small Area Level: The Indices of Deprivation 2000. London, Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, 2000.

Jeremy Richardson (Professorial Fellow) has continued in his post as Director of the University's Centre for European Politics, Economics and Society (CEPES) and teaches two core classes on the M Phil in European Politics and Society. The Centre continued to expand and by September 2001 had five externally-funded staff in post (three Marie Curie Post-doctoral Fellows, one ESRC Research Fellow, and one lecturer in German politics funded by DAAD).

Until he was found to have developed cardiac problems, in January 2001, Professor Richardson was Chair of the Examiners for the M Phil in European Politics and Society, Director of Graduate Studies and Chair of the Politics Graduate Studies Committee, and a member of the following committees of the Department of Politics and International Relations: General Purposes Committee; Research Committee; Research Assessment Exercise (RAE) Committee. Externally, he continued as a consultant to the Environment Agency and has acted as external assessor for two politics chairs. He was co-organizer of the European Integration section of the first ECPR/IR annual conference, held at Kent in September. He has continued to edit the Journal of European Public Policy, now in its eighth year. Several projects were delayed by illness and others by the slow pace at which some academic publishers work. However, a number of delayed projects should be in print in the coming academic year. His main research interests are (1) the European Union policy process; (2) comparative public policy; (3) British public policy; (4) Swedish policy making; (5) interest groups.

Publications
(editor) European Union: Power and Policy-making. Second edition, London: Routledge, 2001.
'Government, Interest Groups and Policy Change', Political Studies, 48, 2000. (Awarded the Political Studies Association Wilfred Harrison Prize for the best article in Political Studies 2000.)
(with S Mazey) 'Institutionalising Promiscuity: Commission-Interest Group Relations in the EU', in A Stone Sweet, W Sandholtz and N Fligstein (eds.), The Institutionalization of Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with G Dudley) 'Managing Decline: Governing National Steel Production under Economic Adversity', in M Bovens, P t'Hart and B G Peters (eds.), Success and Failure in Public Governance: A Comparative Analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2001.
(with G Dudley) 'British Steel and the British Government: Problematic Learning as a Policy Style', in M Bovens, P t'Hart and B G Peters (eds.), Success and Failure in Public Governance: A Comparative Analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2001.
'Policy-Making in the EU: Familiar Ambitions in Unfamiliar Settings?', in A Menon (ed.), From Nation State to Europe? Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Jane Roberts (Data Services Officer) managed the Data Library, which continued to expand with new and revised datasets from all over the world. She maintained links with researchers and archives outside Oxford and attended user group workshops on many of the commonly-used datasets.

She continued to serve as Oxford University's representative in a national network of Organizational Representatives established by the UK Data Archive, and remained an active member of the International Association for Social Science Information Service and Technology, which encourages communication between data managers worldwide. She attended their 2001 conference in Amsterdam.

Publication
(with A Heath and D McMahon) 'Ethnic Differences in the Labour Market: a Comparison of the Samples of Anonymized Records and the Labour Force Surveys', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 163, 2000.

Kevin Roberts (Professorial Fellow) continued his collaboration with Leonardo Felli of the LSE. They have been investigating the extent to which the operation of competitive markets provide the correct incentives for investment decisions that must be made before markets open. Previous work looked at a particular example of a competitive market. Recent work has investigated more general concepts of a market which embrace competitive as well as, for instance, auction situations. In essence, agents are provided with the correct incentives if, as a result of trading, they are the residual claimants to the surplus created by trade. This is the case in a wide variety of situations. Other work this year has focused on the further development of models to explain the dynamic behaviour of organizations run by committees.

In College, he helped organize a conference in honour of Jim Mirrlees. He also started a term as property bursar. He continued as a member of the editorial board of Oxford Economic Papers and as an associate editor of the Economic Journal.

Publication
'A Reconsideration of the Optimal Income Tax', in P Hammond and G Myles (eds.), Incentives, Organization and Public Economics: Essays in Honour of Sir James Mirrlees. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000.

Patrick Schmidt (Research Fellow). With funding from the US National Science Foundation (SES-0001773), Schmidt began a project to understand the internal dynamics of corporate compliance with securities regulation. Following on his earlier research, the research has used lawyers for all parties in financial transactions to build an account of legal norms, incentive structures, and interpersonal dynamics. Securities regulation has proven to be a vital and rapidly changing area of transnational interest, although usually obscured from broadly ethnographic analysis by the inherent complexities of the subject. Aspects of this project extend his previous and continuing work into the reflexive impact of law and legal norms within political networks of administrative agencies and private actors. Additionally, with Paul Martin (Cambridge University), he has continued work into how courts have responded to disputes involving rapidly evolving technologies, from a perspective of their capacity to assess the technologies, project future evolution, and metaphorically adapt new situations to existing legal frameworks.

Publications
(with P Martin) 'To the Internet and Beyond: State Supreme Courts on the World Wide Web', Judicature, 84, 2001.
(with E Fisher) 'Seeing the "Blind Spots" in Administrative Law: Theory, Practice, and Rulemaking Settlements in the United States', Common Law World Review, 30, 2001.

Francis Seton (Emeritus Fellow). He is trying to establish the link between Eigenprices and the Strategic Monopolists which were the subject of his previous report for the College.

L J Sharpe (Emeritus Fellow). Editorial work on preparing a volume of essays on the EU under the auspices of the European Consortium of Political Research continued but was not completed. Other work on the EU was also carried out. Various teaching engagements were also undertaken.

Neil Shephard (Official Fellow) spent most of his year working on a project with Ole Barndorff-Nielsen (Aarhus) on Lévy-based dynamic models for financial economics. They read a paper on this topic to the Royal Statistical Society, while he gave week-long schools on this material to the Royal Economic Society's Easter school in econometrics and to the CIDE's (Italy) summer school in econometrics. They are currently trying to finish their book on this subject. He also researched on a time series model which has potential use in market microstructure economics. This work is supported by a three-year grant from the ESRC.

He gave invited addresses at conferences on Statistical Modelling (Odense, Denmark), Festschrift for Tom Rothenberg (Berkeley, USA), Festschrift for Ole Barndorff-Nielsen (Aarhus, Denmark), Market Microstructure Econometrics (Centre of Analaytic Finance, Denmark), Volatility Modelling (Perth, Australia), Stochastic Volatility and Lévy Processes (Vienna, Austria), Stochastic Volatility and Lévy Processes (Aarhus, Denmark), Volatility (Montreal, Canada), Empirical Finance (Financial Markets Group, LSE).

In addition he gave a contributed talk to the ESRC Study group meeting on econometrics held at Bristol University, while he gave a statistics department seminar at Leeds, a finance seminar at Oxford and econometrics seminars at CEMFI (Madrid, Spain) and Birkbeck.

He continues to edit the Royal Economic Society's Econometric Journal, while also working on the editorial boards of the Review of Economic Studies and the Journal of Financial Econometrics. Finally, he helped his colleagues David Firth and Clive Payne produce live seat forecasts for the BBC's general election results program.

Publications
(with O Elerian and S Chib) 'Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Non-linear Diffusions', Econometrica, 69, 2001.
(with O E Barndorff-Nielsen) 'Non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-based Models and Some of Their Uses in Financial Economics (with discussion)' Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 63, 2001.

Hyun Song Shin (Senior Research Fellow) has been adjusting to his new post at the London School of Economics. He began collaboration with LSE colleagues Jon Danielsson and Jean-Pierre Zigrand on the consequences for asset price dynamics of widespread adoption of risk management techniques by individual market participants. Financial risk management involves forecasting future market outcomes, but unlike forecasting the weather, beliefs about future market events affects current actions, and thereby have an impact on the very outcome that one tries to forecast. Widespread adoption of techniques that neglect this feedback may exacerbate financial market distress. Shin has also continued his collaboration with Stephen Morris of Yale University on the impact of public disclosures on financial market stability. In one paper, Morris and Shin examine the commonly encountered claim that markets 'overreact' to public news, such as the publication of key statistics or pronouncements by central bankers. To the extent that public news becomes common knowledge among recipients, Morris and Shin find that there is some truth to the claim that markets overreact, and conclude that public disclosures are rather double-edged in their effects on economic welfare. Sometimes transparency is bad.

Shin co-chaired the programme committee for the Econometric Society European Meeting in Lausanne in August 2001. He also served as a consultant to the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements on financial stability issues.

Publication
(with S Morris) 'Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling', in K Rogoff and B Bernanke (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2001

Stuart Soroka (Post-doctoral Research Fellow) continued his work on the relationships between mass media, public opinion, and public policy. In particular, he completed a monograph and related article on agenda-setting dynamics in Canada. The manuscript is in review, and the article is forthcoming in the International Journal of Public Opinion Research. In addition, he completed articles on the effects of question wording and number of responses on the 'most important problem' question, and on the relationships between media content, public preferences, and defence policy in the US and UK. Related papers were given at annual meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research and the American Political Science Association; the articles are currently in review. Each of these manuscripts ties into the larger project that Stuart is working on, exploring the links between public opinion and public policy across various policy fields in a number of Western democracies. His current research focuses on the effects of institutions and policymaking processes on the link between public preferences and public policy.

Stuart also continued working with the 'Equality, Security, and Community' project, run by the Centre for Research on Economic and Social Policy at the University of British Columbia, Canada. Working with results from a new Canadian survey, he is examining the relationships between interpersonal trust, political trust, and support for social insurance programs (with Richard Johnston, UBC), and the effects of question wording on measures of interpersonal trust (with John Helliwell, UBC). This research draws together the growing body of literature on trust and social capital, and past work on the psychological and political sources of support for welfare programs.

Publications
(with R Johnston) 'Social Capital in a Multicultural Society', in P Dekker and E Uslaner (eds.), Social Capital and Participation in Everyday Life. London: Routledge, 2001.
'Schindler's List's Intermedia Influence: Exploring the Role of "Entertainment" in Media Agenda-Setting', Canadian Journal of Communication, 25, 2000.

Alec Stone Sweet (Official Fellow) works in the fields of comparative and international politics, and comparative and international law. He published a book (co-edited with Wayne Sandholtz and Neil Fligstein) on the theory and process of European integration, and will soon begin writing a book on the construction of the European legal system. He also completed two other projects (now in press): a special issue of West European Politics (co-edited with Mark Thatcher) devoted to the politics of delegation to non-majoritarian institutions, and a book (co-authored with Martin Shapiro), On Law, Politics, and Judicialization, to be published by Oxford University Press. During the 2000-01 academic year, he gave invited presentations in departments of sociology, political science, and law in Stockholm, Trento, New York, Canberra, Berkeley, Paris, and San Domenico di Fiesole.

Publications
(editor with N Fligstein and W Sandholtz) The Institutionalization of Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001
'The Institutionalization of European Space', in A Stone Sweet, W Sandholtz, and N Fligstein (eds.), The Institutionalization of Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with N Fligstein) 'Institutionalizing the Treaty of Rome, in A Stone Sweet, W Sandholtz, and N Fligstein (eds.), The Institutionalization of Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with J Caporaso) 'Institutional Logics of Integration, in A Stone Sweet, W Sandholtz, and N Fligstein (eds.), The Institutionalization of Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(with T Brunell) 'A Researcher's Guide to the Data Base on Preliminary References in European Law', Särtryck ur Europarättslig Tidskrift (Swedish Journal of European Law), 3, 2000.
(with T Brunell) The European Court, National Judges and Legal Integration: A Researcher's Guide to the Data Base on Preliminary References in European Law, 1958-98', European Journal of European Law, 6, 2000.
'Islands of Transnational Governance', Center for European Studies Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley, 2001.
(with N Fligstein) Constructing Markets and Polities: An Institutionalist Account of European Integration', Center for the Study of Organization, Politics, and Culture Working Paper, University of California, Berkeley, 2001.

Alice Sullivan (British Academy Research Fellow) continued to work on the sociology of education. Together with Anthony Heath, she is applying for funds to carry out a survey of British state and private schools. This project would examine the question of whether there are genuine school sector effects on attainment, and, if so, how these effects can be explained. They are also working on a joint paper using NCDS (National Child Development Survey) to examine school sector effects.

Alice has submitted papers to Sociology, Sociology of Education, Netherlands Journal of Social Sciences, and Oxford Review of Education. Together with Herman van de Werfhorst and Sin Yi Cheung, a paper has been submitted to the British Educational Research Journal. 'Cultural Capital and Educational Attainment' has been accepted for publication in the November 2001 issue of Sociology (Volume 35, Number 4).
Papers were presented at Oxford and Mannheim.

Publication
'Students as Rational Decision Makers: The Question of Beliefs and Desires' Working Paper Number 2001-02, Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, March 2001, http://www.sociology.oxford.ac.uk/2001-02.html.

Adam Swift (British Academy Research Fellow) spent too much of Michaelmas finishing a book which began as Liberty, Equality, Community: An Introduction for Undergraduates and Prime Ministers and ended with the title reported below. Conceived when he discovered Tony Blair's regret at not having studied political philosophy as an undergraduate, it has two aims: to become the introduction of choice for students, both sides of the Atlantic (hence the change of title), and to bring political philosophy out of the ivory tower. By the time you read this it will have been published and, doubtless, sunk without trace.

After Christmas he was able to make a start on what he should have been doing all along: a project called: 'The Intergenerational Transmission of Advantage: Sociological Mechanisms and their Normative Assessment'. Re-reading his grant proposal he was alarmed to discover that he had undertaken to write two books during his two-year leave. So he got on with the first, to be called something like If you don't believe in private education, how come your kids go private? (or, by the time the publishers have had their say, Hypocrisy!). School choice leading many parents to agonize about what they can and cannot do for their children, this is the moment when the normative aspects of intergenerational transmission, and apparent conflicts between principle and practice, are most salient. The book is intended for parents not academics, provides various justifications for going private that are consistent with progressive politics, and should sell very well in North Oxford.

Alongside this larger enterprise, he revised his contribution 'Social Justice: Why Does It Matter What the People Think?' to a forthcoming collection on the work of David Miller and, now in company with Kenneth Macdonald, continued to worry about odds ratios. He spent six weeks in the spring visiting at MIT, giving papers at Harvard and Queen's, Ontario.
He can't quite believe his luck in holding his British Academy Readership back at Nuffield, after 12 years teaching at Balliol. Not just a welcome change of scene; nowhere could be better.

Publications
'Class Analysis from a Normative Perspective', British Journal of Sociology, 51, 2000.
'Politics v Philosophy', Prospect, August, 2001.
Political Philosophy: A Beginners' Guide for Students and Politicians. Cambridge: Polity Press, 2001.

Herman van de Werfhorst (Post-doctoral Research Fellow) spent his first academic year at Nuffield College on work related to his Ph.D. thesis defended on March 9, 2001 at the University of Nijmegen, the Netherlands. His major research interest was in the role of fields of study - in addition to educational levels - in issues on social stratification and mobility. Both the impact of the family background on choices for fields of study of children, and the impact of fields of study on individuals' further life chances (work, consumption, attitudes) have been studied. Papers have been presented at conferences of the Research Committee on Social Stratification and Mobility (RC28) of the International Sociological Association in Mannheim, Germany, and Berkeley, USA. Other papers have been presented at the World Association of Public Opinion Research, Rome, and the ECSR conference 'European Societies or European Society?', Kerkrade, the Netherlands. Furthermore, Van de Werfhorst served as an external referee for the Netherlands' Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).

Publications
'Schoenmaker, blijf bij je leest? Over de invloed van opleidingsrichting op type beroep en de financiële bonus van een goede aansluiting', Tijdschrift voor Arbeidsvraagstukken, 16, 2000.
'Schoenmaker, blijf bij je leest?', in A de Grip, S de Groot, K Kuipers, H Scholten and M Wolbers (eds.), Alleen Kennis Werkt? Bijdragen aan de Nederlandse Arbeidsmarktdag 2000. Maastricht: ROA/NAD, 2000.
(with G Kraaykamp) 'Culturele, economische, communicatieve en technische hulpbronnen van onderwijsrichtingen: de WK-indeling', Mens & Maatschappij, 75, 2000.
(with G Kraaykamp and N D De Graaf) 'Intergenerational Transmission of Educational Field Resources: The Impact of Parental Resources and Socialization Practices on Children's Fields of Study in The Netherlands'. The Netherlands' Journal of Social Sciences, 36, 2000.
Field of Study and Social Inequality. Four Types of Educational Resources in the Process of Stratification in the Netherlands. Nijmegen: ICS Dissertation, 2001.
(with N D De Graaf and G Kraaykamp) 'Intergenerational Resemblance in Field of Study in the Netherlands'. European Sociological Review, 17, 2001.
(with G Kraaykamp) 'Four Field-related Educational Resources and Their Impact on Labor, Consumption and Sociopolitical Orientation', Sociology of Education, 74, 2001.

Megan Vaughan (Faculty Fellow) holds a British Academy Readership (1999-2001). She completed a book on slavery and creolization in 18th-century Mauritius and has been conducting research in Malawi on social identities in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the impact of the slave trade. She has also been researching the writings of colonial intermediaries (African clerks, teachers and others) and collecting life histories. She has advised on customary land tenure and land policy in Malawi, and on the reform of customary law. She maintains an active interest in the social history of medicine and in gender and history. She presented papers on her research at the University of Frankfurt, Columbia University and University of Avignon.

Publications
'Sklaverei, Kolonialismus und Kreolisches Erinnern', in M-L Angerer and H Krips (eds.), Der Andere Schauplatz:Psychoanalyse-Kultur-Media, Vienna: Turia and Kant, 2001.
'Introduction', in Studies In The Political Economy Of Mauritius. Mauritius: Mahatma Gandhi Institute, 2001.

Lucy White (Prize Research Fellow) continued her research with Alan Morrison (Merton College, Saïd Business School) on bank regulation, presenting preliminary results at the 2001 Annual Meetings of the European Economic Association (University of Lausanne) and the European Finance Association (University of Pompeu Fabra). She also started work with Alexander Guembel (Lincoln College, Saïd Business School) on the complementarities that arise when companies issue both debt and equity to raise funds for investment. In addition, she has been pursuing her research interests in bargaining and industrial economics, revising for publication several chapters from her thesis. Seminars were also presented at Boston University; University of Chicago Graduate School of Business; Columbia University; European Science Foundation Exploratory Workshop in Bargaining (Barcelona); Harvard Business School; John F Kennedy School of Government (Harvard University); Kellogg School of Management (Northwestern University); Sloan School of Business (Massachussetts Institute of Technology); University of Southern California; Stanford Graduate School of Business; Stern School of Business (New York University); WZB Berlin and Yale University.

Laurence Whitehead (Official Fellow) was on leave this year. With the disappearance of the General Board he relinquished almost all his university responsibilities and he also came to the end of his term of office as College property bursar. Apart from some continuing doctoral supervision and occasional lectures, he was free to concentrate on his own studies. The major focus of his work was the completion of a book manuscript on Democratization: Theory and Experience, and also the text of an edited volume Emerging Market Democracies: East Asia and Latin America. Most of his other activities were directly or indirectly linked to those undertakings.

Thus, one chapter of his book deals with 'citizen security', and includes a case study of El Salvador, which he visited twice during the year. These visits were in connection with a government-funded collaborative research project under his direction. The initial plan was to hold a conference in St Antony's at the end of January 2001, to review the work of the various contributors. Unfortunately a week before the conference was due El Salvador was struck by a severe earthquake which made it necessary to revise and reschedule the project. A modified and updated version of the conference was held in San Salvador at the end of September.

Another theme of his main book concerns the distinctive historical foundations of democratization in various contexts. He spent much of March in Bolivia, where the book Towards Democratic Viability: the Bolivian Experience was launched and presented to a variety of audiences. Another chapter concerns the relationship between democracy and monetary authority. Originally delivered as a paper at a panel he organized at IPSA (Quebec City) this has now expanded into a collaborative volume due to be published in Brazil (in Portuguese) this autumn. In a similar vein he presented a paper on the distinctiveness of the post-communist democratizations at a conference organized by the Millennium Foundation in Budapest. The Foundation is currently translating a selection of his writings on this theme for publication as a volume in Hungarian. He also presented a paper at a conference in the Carter Center in Atlanta based on his chapter concerning institutional design and accountability in new democracies. Also, in association with the University of Texas at Austin and the Polish Institute for International Affairs, he co-organized a conference on the transatlantic relationship in Warsaw in December. A proposed second conference will have a particular emphasis on the eastern enlargement of the EU and NATO. Other aspects of this work were also presented at the Adenauer Foundation in Berlin, at CREALC in Aix-en-Provence, and at the Menéndez Pelayo University in Santander. Other ongoing collaborations involve the National Endowment for Democracy, the UNU, and the Pacific Council for International Policy, also mainly concerned with aspects of democratization.

This is his final year as editor of the Journal of Latin American Studies but he continues as editor of the Oxford Studies in Democratization book series. He plans to remain actively involved with the series, but once his current commitments are completed, he expects to devote most of his future research time to work on Mexico.

Publications
(editor and author of two additional chapters) The International Dimensions of Democratization (enlarged paperback edition). Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.
(editor with J Crabtree) Towards Democratic Viability: The Bolivian Experience. New York: Palgrave, 2001.
'East Asia and Latin America: Stirrings of Mutual Recognition?' Journal of Democracy, 11, 2000.
'Bolivia and the Viability of Democracy', Journal of Democracy, 12, 2001.
(with G Gray-Molina) 'Capacidad Política a la Larga', Revista Mexicana de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, 179, 2000.
Closing Commentary on Prospects for the EU-US Relationship. Warsaw: Polish Institute of International Affairs Conferences, 2001.
'Los cambiantes fundamentos del liberalismo económico en la política pública de America Latina', Foreign Affairs en Español, 1, 2001.
'La consolidation de la démocratie: nouveaux questionnements', Revue Internationale de Politique Comparée, 8, 2001.
'Reflections on the "Transatlantic Partnership" after Nice and Tallahassee', in R Stemplowski (ed.), Prospects for EU-US Relationship. Warsaw: The Polish Institute of International Affairs, 2001.

Meir Yaish (Prize Research Fellow) has concentrated on his work studying the Israeli class structure. He has published a paper that examines the effect of strong ethnic divisions on the formation of a class structure and class inequality in Israeli society. Yaish further studied the Israeli class structure in two additional papers. In the first, he examined the effect of immigration on class mobility and inequality. It was shown that immigration to Israel has affected the Israeli class structure, though it has had little effect on inequality of opportunity. In the second paper (with Robert Andersen), one of the objectives was to explore whether or not class affects voting in Israel. The other objective was to examine whether, and if so how, electoral reforms might affect cleavage-voting patterns. We showed that the effect of class on voting in Israel is unique, in that the upper classes tend to support the labour party. We also showed that changing the rules of the political game in Israel had little effect on the cleavage voting association. Yaish is also engaging in a number of projects that go beyond the study of Israeli society. With Richard O'Leary he is studying Jewish-Christian intermarriage patterns and trends in the US. He continues working on altruism and the rescue of Jews in Nazi-occupied Europe with Federico Varese. Some of the results of this study were published last year. New results from this project suggest that in the context of the Holocaust - when the risk of helping Jews was very high - a model of reasoned action does not provide a sufficient explanation of (altruistic) behaviour. Contrary to this model, we showed that rescuers of Jews were often spontaneous in their (altruistic) behaviour. In the last year Yaish has presented papers at the EUI in Florence, Italy; the Department of Experimental Psychology, Oxford; RC28 meeting in Berkeley, California; and the ASR meeting in Anaheim, California.

Publication
'Class Structure in A Deeply Divided Society. Class and Ethnic Inequality in Israel, 1974-1991', British Journal of Sociology, 52, 2001.

Rosalind Yarde (Guardian Research Fellow) spent her year as Guardian Research Fellow writing a book on how the British press has reported on race issues over the last 20 years. During the year, the question of race became even more of a political issue following a series of major events in the news such as the Northern riots, the General Election campaign, the asylum issue and the attack on the World Trade Centre. These events - and the obvious influence the media had in shaping the perceptions of the wider population - reinforced her view that the question of race and the media was one that needed to be urgently addressed. Much of her time was split between the College and resource centres such as the British Library's newspaper library in Colindale, London, and despite only being able to spend two or three days a week on her work, Rosalind completed nearly half of the writing and research for the book. Happily, the book generated interest from publishers and Rosalind hopes to see it in bookshops by the end of 2002. As a result of her research, Rosalind gave a speech on media distortions of the asylum issue at an event in London to mark National Refugee Week and also helped organize an asylum awareness event in September. This was, however, not only a year of academic pursuits: it was also an opportunity for Rosalind to make some very good friends, savour the hospitality of the College and enjoy the luxury of time to think and write.

The web version of the annual report was created by Lisa Jones, from the published version which was compiled and edited by Carol Philips. An Adobe PDF version can be found here.

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