Real Wages and the Family: Adjusting Real Wages to Changing Demography in Pre-Modern England

Eric Schneider

University of Oxford

Abstract

This  paper  uses  demographic  data  drawn  from  Wrigley  et  al.’s  (1997)  family reconstitutions  of  26  English  parishes  to  adjust  Allen’s  (2001)  real  wages  to  the changing  demography  of  early  modern  England.  Using  parity  progression  ratios  (a fertility measure) and age specific mortality for children and parents, model families are predicted in two reference periods 1650-1700 and 1750-1800. These models yield two levels of interesting results. At the individual family level, we can measure how different families’ real wages changed over the family life cycle as additional children were born. At the aggregate level, we can predict thousands of families using Monte Carlo simulation, creating a realistic distribution of median family real wages in the economy. There are two main findings. First, pregnancy and lactation do not create cyclical effects in the family’s income. Instead, most families’ welfare ratios decline steadily  across  the  family  life  cycle  until  children  begin  to  leave  the  household, increasing  the  welfare  ratios.  Second,  Allen’s  real  wages  understate  or  match  the median of the predicted demography-adjusted distributions.