Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Keane
Author-Workplace-Name: Oxford University and UNSW Australia Business School
Author-Email: michael.keane@economics.ox.ac.uk
Author-Name: Timothy Neal
Author-Workplace-Name: University of New South Wales
Author-Email: timothy.neal@unsw.edu.au)
Title: The Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: New Evidence on the Role of Heterogeneity and Adaptation


Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the productivity of crop production using U.S. county-level yield
and weather data between 1950 and 2015. It finds that the pooled estimators used in previous studies underestimate the
sensitivity of crops to high temperatures by ignoring slope heterogeneity, and underestimate the damage of future climate
change on yield. Furthermore, explicitly modelling this heterogeneity provides a natural approach to measuring the degree
of adaptation to climate change in the data. It concludes with evidence that further adaptation may mitigate up to half 
of the substantial losses to crop productivity forecast by 2050
Length: 34 pages
Creation-Date: 2017-04-28
Number: 2017-W03
File-URL: https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/economics/papers/2017/ClimateChangeandCropYieldAERSubmissionRC.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:1703