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Abstract: Many research questions in the social sciences regard the origins of social change. One standard approach to the study of social change is the application of age-period-cohort (APC) models. Because of the difficulties in applying these models in practice and the lack of attention towards population structure, we argue that these models have not contributed much towards a deeper understanding of the origins of social change. We revisit earlier approaches—notably the decompositions of social change into cohort replacement and intracohort change developed by Firebaugh (1989)—, and clarify that this approach is distinct from APC modeling. We emphasize this distinction by developing a simulation-based estimator of population turnover and intraindividual change. This estimator is more flexible than conventional APC models, and avoids the identification problem. We conclude with empirical examples on social tolerance towards homosexuality and the prevalence of smoking.

The Sociology Seminar Series for Hilary Term is convened by Dave Kirk and Jennifer Dowd.  For more information about this or any of the seminars in the series, please contact sociology.secretary@nuffield.ox.ac.uk.