Events

‘Current research on Probability and Confidence usage in UK intelligence products’ 

Speaker: Kristian Gustafson 

Location: Butler Room, D Staircase, Nuffield College 

Date: 5:30PM, 23 March 2026 

Kristian Gustafson is Reader in Intelligence & War at Brunel University Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, in London. He is a graduate of the Royal Military College of Canada, the University of Alberta, Canada, and Downing College, Cambridge, UK. Before coming to Brunel, Dr. Gustafson was senior lecturer in War Studies at the Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. He has served in the Canadian Army and as a Reservist in the British Army (including an Afghanistan tour) and taught at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the United Kingdom.  Dr. Gustafson has conducted consultancy and advisory work for the UK MOD's Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, and had an integral role in developing UK Joint Intelligence Doctrine.  He conducts research on intelligence history and on structured analytical methodology, most recently alongside the UK Cabinet Office's Professional Head of Intelligence Analysis. 

Dinner information: A discussion dinner will be held in College after the talk. The cost of this dinner will be £35.00 (£30.00 for full-time students – limited places available). Places are open to OIG Members (i.e. those receiving this notification directly from the OIG Director).   

If you are in receipt of this notification because of cross-posting by an associated Oxford group, such as Changing Character of War or the Strategic Studies Group, please apply for a dinner invitation directly from the Director, Gwilym Hughes, details below (with a brief description of your affiliation and any dietary needs). The deadline for all dinner applications is Friday, 13 March 2026. The list will be closed earlier if we reach dining room capacity.   

You MUST send confirmation of payment to gwilym.hughes@nuffield.ox.ac.uk; otherwise, your payment will not be recorded by the OIG, and no dinner reservation will be made.    

Payment    

Payment method is by BACS transfer directly to Nuffield College:
Account Name: Nuffield College  
Bank Name:       Royal Bank of Scotland
Account No:       12025170  
Sort Code:          16-10-15 
Reference:         OIG Dinner 23March26   

At least one working day’s notice before the event is required for cancellation. Bids not needed from Group members not staying for dinner though notification is always welcome and helps the speakers.  Directions to the College, and a map, are available on the College website: Contact Us - Nuffield College Oxford University    

Gwilym Hughes, Director, Oxford Intelligence Group  https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/our-research/research-centres/oig/