Events

Joint work with: Martin Arvidsson and Marc Keuschnigg

Abstract: Cumulative advantage, the idea that early advances or setbacks compound into enduring inequality, has become a central framework in life course research. However, we argue that many life events are largely independent of prior outcomes, permitting advantages to offset earlier disadvantages, and vice versa. Such countervailing sequences of events give rise to self-correcting dynamics, in which early (dis)advantages gradually fade, leaving no lasting imprint on long-term outcomes. We test this claim using Swedish register data by estimating the long-term wage effects of six life course events: being the oldest in class, being the eldest sibling, exposure to high–status classmates, narrowly exceeding an elite college admissions threshold, graduating during a recession, and experiencing a workplace closure. In each case, consistent with the fading advantage hypothesis, the wage effects of these events diminish over time and eventually vanish. U.S. panel data replications for two events show similar results. Beyond the life course, our findings suggest that the persistence of any cumulative advantage process depends on positive reinforcement having greater force than countervailing events.

The Sociology Seminar Series for Trinity Term is convened by Ozan Aksoy and Zachary Parolin For more information about this or any of the seminars in the series, please contact sociology.secretary@nuffield.ox.ac.uk.