Events

Abstract:  Migration dynamics are shaped not only by immigration but also by return and onward movements. Yet systematic, representative data on these processes remain scarce. This talk introduces the newly launched International Mobility Panel of Migrants in Germany (IMPa) – a large-scale, multi-cohort longitudinal survey of approximately 50,000 foreign-born individuals aged 18 to 65 in its first wave (December 2024–April 2025). Based on register-based sampling, IMPa provides representative evidence on migration intentions, mobility trajectories, and the institutional and social conditions shaping them.

Descriptive findings reveal substantial mobility potential: 57 percent of immigrants report intentions to stay permanently, but 26 percent have recently considered leaving Germany and 3 percent report concrete emigration plans, split between return and onward migration. Emigration intentions are not concentrated among the marginalized. Rather, well-integrated, highly educated, and economically successful migrants – particularly in knowledge-intensive sectors – are more likely to consider exit. Experiences of discrimination and weak societal belonging increase mobility risks, whereas social embeddedness and job satisfaction reduce them.

The second part of the talk develops this pattern theoretically and empirically through an aspiration–capability framework. The study examines how discrimination experiences generate exit aspirations and how these aspirations translate into migration intentions conditional on migrants’ capabilities. Human capital is conceptualized as a central component of migration capability (motility), distinguishing between absolute education (signaling transferable skills and employability) and relative education (educational position within the origin-country distribution). The argument is that discrimination increases aspirations to leave, but only migrants with sufficient capabilities are able to transform these aspirations into concrete mobility plans.

The Sociology Seminar Series for Trinity Term is convened by Ozan Aksoy and Zachary Parolin For more information about this or any of the seminars in the series, please contact sociology.secretary@nuffield.ox.ac.uk.