Nuffield Warden Andrew Dilnot has published a comment piece on a recent study of dependency states in the elderly, in which he calls for greater attention and action to address projected increases in demands for social care.
While increased life expectancy could be considered a triumph of medical advances, improved incomes and public health information, it also brings social care challenges that Britain urgently needs to prepare for, Dilnot argues.
The study, published in the Lancet on 15 August 201, aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and create new projections of future demand for care.
The researchers projected that if rates of dependency remain constant, there will be an additional 190,000 older people with medium dependency, and 163,000 with high dependency by 2025 compared with 2015. That translates to a predicted need of over 71,000 extra care home places by 2025.
Dilnot welcomed the study, saying that, "Failing to address coherently change on the scale that we face in many countries worldwide would be a tragedy."
He undertook both live and recorded interviews with the BBC, ITV, and Sky News to explain the implications an ageing population for health and social care, as well as government strategies and spending priorities.
Read Dilnot's article here: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31938-4/fulltext
And the original academic publication here: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31575-1/fulltext