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A new international study published in Nature Communications, co-authored by Nuffield Official Fellow Nan Dirk de Graaf, finds that religious commitment typically declines across generations in the same order around the globe. This pattern is observed in countries where the largest religion is Christianity, Islam, Hinduism and Buddhism. Analysing surveys
conducted with nationally representative samples in more than 100 countries, researchers
identified a three-step sequence:

1. Public participation (e.g., attending worship services) drops first.
2. Personal importance of religion fades next.
3. Religious belonging (affiliation) is shed last.

The researchers call this the Participation–Importance–Belonging (P-I-B) sequence. They found this pattern developing around the world, challenging the idea that religious decline (secularisation) is exclusively a Western and Christian phenomenon. Muslim majority countries and African countries have not reached the third step of the sequence.

The researchers ranked all countries according to country religiosity. When they compared older (40+) and younger (<40) individuals, they found that in very religious countries younger people often participated in worship services less frequently, in moderately religious countries, younger people were less religious regarding all three indicators, and in the least religious countries, younger people were less likely to report religious belonging. For instance, Senegal, a very religious country, shows age gaps in religious attendance, but no similar age gaps in the importance of religion or belonging. In Portugal, a moderately religious country, younger people are less religious in all three indicators. In the Netherlands, age gaps can be found only in religious belonging.

The researchers estimate this is a sequence of religious decline that happens over a period of roughly 200 years. In this process, successive generations drop more costly traits of religiosity first, and less costly traits later. Different countries begin the sequence at different times. The very secular European countries are further along, and highly religious African
countries are often close to the beginning. Many countries in the Americas, Asia and Oceania are in the middle stage of this global secular transition.

An apparent exception to the sequence is Post-Soviet Eastern European countries like Russia, Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia, which do not show the expected cohort differences. The reason for this seems to lie in nationalism-linked religious revivals that obscure a longer-term trend.

Overall, religion seems to fade in a similar three-step sequence almost everywhere — the key difference is when the fading begins. This research is primarily based on Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 111 countries. Results were validated on the World Values Survey and European Values Study surveys in 58 countries. Additional analysis was done on a subset of 17 countries measured in at least five waves of the World Values Survey and European Values Study.

Study: The Three Stages of Religious Decline Around the World, Nature Communications