Getting UK Net Zero back on track
Directors of the Climate Econometrics project team Jennifer Castle and Nuffield Fellow David Hendry have suggested five steps to get the UK back on track to net-zero in 2050.
The five policy interventions – called Sensitive Intervention Points (SIPs) – were published in Renewable Energy in May 2024. Each SIP is a small to moderate policy intervention that will kick (alter a variable that triggers a positive feedback loop) and shift (fundamentally change the system) the UK towards positive policy transformation.
The five intervention points are:
- Zero greenhouse-gas electricity generation by greatly expanding renewable energy, supported by more storage and the possible development of safe, small and modular nuclear reactors.
- Zero greenhouse gas emissions from transportation, followed by developing a network of short-term energy storage units for electric vehicles plugged into an intelligent, resilient and expanded grid, alongside a government-funded scrappage scheme.
- Low cost hydrogen from cheap surplus renewable energy, liquefied for medium-term storage and industry, allowing the production of many items like glass far more cheaply.
- Changing domestic energy to heat pumps and solar photovoltaics and after retrofitting, promoting solar windows and smart glazing.
- Harnessing electricity in agriculture, expanding vertical and underground farms in inner cities and using ground basalt as a cheap fertilizer.
The project team are positive about the 2050 net-zero goal, which they argue is achievable so long as these interventions are implemented. Currently, the UK is lagging behind in its commitment, according to the Independent Review of Net Zero by Chris Skidmore MP in 2022, but intervening in these ways could allow quick changes to this trend.
As Jennifer commented in a press release from the University,
'Humans are creatures of habit and inertial behaviour reflects high perceived costs of economic and psychological adjustments to change. We need to shift those perceptions because the good news is that many of the changes that we need to make to achieve net zero by 2050 are becoming cheaper and more possible.
'The focus of SIPs is because behaviour change measures need to be implemented quickly and must have wide reach to be effective and ensure climate neutrality by 2050 can be met. By targeting a small number of areas we can achieve outsized impacts and maximise the benefits of the energy transition for the UK.'
David also shared that these interventions must be swift and decisive to bring the country back on track:
'Recent Parliamentary reports have raised the alarm that the UK has drifted off track on net zero. Our research shows that it is possible to get back on track with a few targeted and well-timed interventions.
'Coal use has fallen to near zero in the UK since the 2008 Climate Change Act - but eliminating coal from energy production was the easiest reduction: now both oil and natural gas usage must be removed sequentially. The rapidly falling costs of renewable energy sources like solar photovoltaics and wind turbines combined with improved storage methods could eliminate most oil and then gas usage by 2050 – but only with policies that target sensitive intervention points.
'An extended grid should be self-funding; vehicle obsolescence steadily replaced by electric vehicles using cheap increased renewable energy will have near zero net costs and ultimately be cheaper than our current fossil fuels; surplus renewable energy could lower many production costs; heat pumps are cheap to run but need retro fitting of badly insulated houses; and basalt is cheap and inexpensive to grid. So a green transition need not be costly while raising living standards and maintaining employment.'
This story first appeared in the University of Oxford’s news pages on 22 May 2024. More information can be found on the website of the Oxford Martin School's Institute for New Economic Thinking.
The original paper can be found at Castle, J. L., & Hendry, D.F. (2024) 'Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK', Renewable Energy, 226, doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2024.120445