Events

This event is hosted by Professorial Fellow Lauren Sukin.

Abstract

Russia’s use of nuclear threats and growing ambiguity surrounding U.S. security assurances to Europe have revived debate over the future of nuclear deterrence on the continent. Some argue that deterrence is failing; others see it as increasingly unsustainable; still others propose apparently simple and inexpensive alternatives. This article argues that much of this debate asks the wrong questions. Nuclear deterrence has, broadly speaking, functioned as intended, but the conditions that made it viable are becoming harder to sustain. Extended deterrence has always rested on difficult political and strategic bargains, and those bargains are likely to become more demanding rather than less. Europe therefore faces no easy or cheap substitute for the existing order. Any credible alternative will require substantial investment, greater strategic clarity, and a willingness to make choices that European governments have often preferred to postpone.

About the speaker

Michal Onderco is Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam, and affiliate at Peace Research Center Prague. His research interests include international security, with focus on politics of nuclear weapons. He received his PhD from Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, and held academic positions at EUI, Columbia University, Stanford, and Waseda.